Thursday, October 23, 2008

Nate Silver: Are the Kids "Groovin' on J-Mac?"

Nate Silver takes the TIPP tracker to task for its finding today that Obama is ahead by just 1 point nationally. In the internals, he finds that TIPP has McCain leading among 18-24 year-olds by 52 points begging the question "Who knew the kids were groovin' on J-Mac these days?" Positively brilliant.

Being the math whiz he is, Nate calculates the odds of TIPP finding a sub-sample of about 100 18-24 year-olds who prefer McCain by such a margin and finds them to be about (he rounds up slightly) 55 billion to 1. The other explanation is that there is something wrong with their sampling or weighting. But the odds of that are only 99.99999999% ... seriously.

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