Friday, October 31, 2008

Late Polls

A lot of polling out for a Friday. But it isn't just any Friday.

The new ABC/WP tracker moves from Obama +8 to Obama +9 and Obama is now at 53%. Marist has a national poll out today that has Obama up by 7 and at 50%.

State polling:

Alaska (R2000) - McCain +19
Colorado (PPP) - Obama +10
Georgia (R2000) - McCain +3
Georgia (Rasmussen) - McCain +5
Mississippi (R2000) - McCain +13
Montana (R2000) - McCain +4
New Hampshire (Rasmussen) - Obama +7
North Carolina (R2000) - Obama +2
North Dakota (R2000) - McCain +1
West Virginia (PPP) - McCain +13

There's a lot of red in this list but who would have believed we would be this close in Georgia, Montana, and North Dakota? The Obama campaign is back up on the air in all these states and we can see why. Georgia, in particular, seems to me like a possibility for a real upset state. The early voting numbers there are showing tremendous African-American turnout. R2000 has a slight Democratic lean so their poll and Rasmussen's poll would seem to be saying about the same thing (McCain up by roughly 5). But, if the likely voter models are wrong in a good way for Obama in any state, Georgia and North Carolina might be the most likely spots.

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