Friday, October 17, 2008

Morning Polls

Today is the first day the trackers are reflecting a full night of interviewing from after the first debate. Gallup (Likely Voter Model II) holds steady at Obama +6. Rasmussen holds steady at Obama +4 (though Nate Silver "cracked" the tracker and thinks Obama had a VERY strong night last night - we shall see over the weekend). Hotline moves from Obama +8 to Obama +10. R2000 moves from Obama +11 to Obama +10 though Obama had his worst single night (Obama +6) in a long time in that poll.

Some state polls are out this morning as well:

California (SurveyUSA) - Obama +24 (not a typo)
Wyoming (R2000) - McCain +23
Florida (SurveyUSA) - McCain +2
Florida (R2000) - Obama +4
Georgia (R2000) - McCain +6
Missouri (Rasmussen) - Obama +6
Mississippi (R2000) - McCain +10
Texas (R2000) - McCain +12
Pennsylvania (Muhlenberg) - Obama +14
North Dakota (R2000) - Tied

The SurveyUSA poll is a disappointing result though R2000 has Florida at Obama +4. And, if you're so inclined, take a look at the internals on that SurveyUSA poll. The poll has Obama winning among African-American voters 75-22. If you think McCain is going to win 22% of African-American voters in Florida, I've got a bridge in Alaska to sell you. So, even this disappointing result has Obama right there. This is the second poll in the last week to show Obama tied with McCain in North Dakota and now, it appears, Obama will go back up on the air in North Dakota. On the other hand, the Rasmussen result in Missouri is very positive. We'll have to see more polling to see if that is just an outlier but a win in Missouri would make Florida irrelevant anyway because ...

... remember (and we can all say this together now), if Obama wins all the Kerry states plus Iowa and New Mexico (and I think he will), he only then needs any ONE state out of Virginia, Colorado, North Carolina, Florida, Ohio, Indiana, or ... Missouri. He's winning in Virigina and Colorado right now, would seem to have a lead in Florida and he's at least about tied in Missouri, Ohio, and North Carolina. By the way, he could also win any combination of two of West Virginia, North Dakota, and Nevada instead of one of the above. So many combinations!

He's in a very strong position still.

In other good news today, the Supreme Court tossed out the federal appeals court ruling in favor of the Ohio GOP regarding voter registration. The prior ruling had required the Secretary of State to provide local officials with lists that could be used to strike new registrants from the voter rolls. Like Keller, the Supreme Court said, "ah no."

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