Tuesday, October 7, 2008

Late Polls Update

A bunch more state polls this afternoon, a lot more bad news for John McCain.

In Pennsylvania, a Rasmussen poll confirms what SurveyUSA found earlier today and what the Morning Call tracker has been showing - a double-digit lead for Obama. Rasmussen has him up by 13. Insider Advantage has Obama up by 6 in Colorado and up by 2 in Nevada. Both those numbers sound roughly correct to me though the Reno Gazette-Journal shows Obama up by 7 in Nevada. A PPP poll in Ohio shows what an ABC/WP poll showed yesterday - Obama by 6. SurveyUSA has McCain up by 3 in North Carolina. A McCain lead of just 3 constitutes good news for him but other polls have Obama edging into the lead there. SurveyUSA also has Obama ahead by 10 in Wisconsin. With same-day registration in the state, consider Wiscsonsin gone. Finally, in the "why are we polling this state?" category, McCain leads by 15 in Alaska (Rasumussen) and Obama leads by 16 in California (SurveyUSA). Seems like a fair trade of Pacific states, right?

The most interesting news to me this afternoon is a Minnesota Public Radio poll in Minnesota that shows Obama up by 14. If you read my posts over the weekend, you know I was skeptical of that SurveyUSA poll showing McCain ahead by 1 there. Since then, we've now had two polls showing Obama with an 18 point lead and a 14 point lead there. This poll had a small sample size so, on its own, it is not totally convincing but, combined with what we are seeing in Iowa and Wisconsin (states somewhat similar to Minnesota demographically) and, taken together with other polling, it seems to me Obama has a double-digit lead in Minnesota right now as well.

McCain now needs the mother of all Hail Marys! It should make for an entertaining debate.

No comments: