Wednesday, October 8, 2008

Morning Polls

Some conflicting signals from the trackers this morning. Gallup and Rasmussen are the trackers I tend to trust the most though Gallup (because of how their samples are constructed differently) tends to be a little more volatile (or sensitive if you want to say it nicely). Gallup shows Obama gaining ground and he's now up by 11 (not a typo) nationally and he's at 52%. He was up by 9 in Gallup's tracker yesterday. Gallup notes in their write-up that Obama has had a double-digit lead in each of the last three nights. On the other hand, Rasmussen shows a slight move towards McCain moving from Obama +8 to Obama +6 though Obama remains at 51%. The other trackers seem to show slight narrowing though it is not really significant. R2000 moves from Obama +12 to Obama +10. Hotline moves from Obama +2 to Obama +1. Battleground moves from Obama +7 to Obama +4. Meanwhile Ipsos has a new national poll out showing Obama ahead by 7. That's probably about where we are.

The state polls continue to show strength for Obama. Rasmussen has Obama ahead by 10 in Wisconsin. The Morning Call tracker has Obama ahead by 12 in Pennsylvania. And Fairleigh Dickinson has Obama ahead by 13 in New Jersey.

None of these polling data include significant numbers of interviews from after the debate. We'll begin to see some of that data tomorrow morning.


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