Tuesday, February 22, 2011

Welcome back!

I am getting ready to re-launch this blog for the 2012 campaign.

In the meantime, just to wet your appetite, here's an article I'm actually dumber for having read. The author argues that this Gallup poll has "bad news" for Dems and Obama for 2012 because there is a drop in the number of voters self-identifying as Dems in many states. Among the most dramatic drops are Tennessee, Virginia, and Missouri. Newsflash: Tennessee wasn't competitive anyway and Missouri is a state Obama barely lost in 2008 and he's likely to lose in 2012 even if Dems weren't doing badly there.

The more important problem with this piece is that, even after the "bad news," Dems still outnumber Republicans in virtually all the key states Obama needs to win. Indeed, the only states where Republicans outnumber Dems have pretty low population (and few electoral votes). Most telling is the fact that the ONLY state Obama won among the states where Republicans outnumber Democrats is New Hampshire ... and Obama will be competitive there in 2012 anyway.

Is this poll good news? No. But it is a bit of a classic media hype story to think Obama is biting his nails over this poll.

I am dumber for having read this ... so you should read it too.