Monday, October 13, 2008

Morning Polls

Is the gap narrowing? There is not a lot of evidence to support the idea. Some of the trackers are narrowing but not by much. The Gallup tracker narrowed over the weekend but snapped right back today. Gallup moves from Obama +7 to Obama +10. Rasmussen moves from Obama +6 to Obama +5. Hotline moves from Obama +8 to Obama +6. Battleground holds steady at Obama +8. R2000 moves from Obama +13 to Obama +12. Meanwhile, the ABC/WP poll has Obama ahead by 10. Obama is at or above 50% in all of these national polls (plus the Newsweek poll from last week) except the Hotline poll.

At the state level, EVERYTHING is moving in Obama's direction this morning. Here's the big one: SurveyUSA has Obama leading in Missouri by 8. Yow! The poll's internals have Obama and McCain tied among white voters in Missouri. It is just hard for me to believe this poll but SurveyUSA has a lot of credibility in my book. Their poll in Minnesota a week ago was off though so we'll see what others find if they poll the state. Marist has Obama up by 4 in Ohio and up by 12 in Pennsylvania. The Morning Call tracker has Obama up by 13 in Pennsylvania (up by a point since yesterday). Some poll in North Dakota shows Obama leading by 2 there. I don't believe it but it isn't bad news either. Rasmussen and some other organizations will be releasing a lot of state polling this afternoon so we should have an update later on tonight with some more results.

Race narrowing? I don't see it. Not yet anyway.

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