Friday, October 31, 2008

Morning Polls

We see some nice movement towards Obama in all the Gallup models today. I prefer the Gallup Likely Voter Model II, which now has Obama up by 9 (it was 7 yesterday) and at 52%. But the truly interesting thing is that we have seen convergence with all three models and, in the "traditional" likely voter model, Obama now leads by 8 (51-43). Among all registered voters, Obama now has an 11-point lead. But it is important to stress how important that move in the "traditional" model is. This model assumes the likely voter pool will look like 2004. Virtually everyone believes the likely voter pool will be better for Obama in some ways though to what extent that is the case is a matter of debate. But, just taking the 2004 voter pool, Obama leads by 8 according to Gallup. That is a deadly, deadly reading for McCain.

The rest of the trackers are basically flat. Rasmussen moves from Obama +5 to Obama +4. Hotline moves from Obama +6 to Obama +7. R2000 moves from Obama +5 to Obama +6.

Some state polls out this morning:

Arizona (R2000) - McCain +1
Indiana (SurveyUSA) - Tied
Louisiana (Loyola) - McCain +3
Michigan (EPIC/MRA) - Obama +12
Michigan (PPP) - Obama +13
Michigan (Strategic Vision) - Obama +13
Minnesota (PPP) - Obama +16
Missouri (Insider Advantage) - McCain +3
New Hampshire (R2000) - Obama +7
New Hampshire (Strategic Vision) - Obama +9
New Hampshire (SurveyUSA) - Obama +11
New Jersey (SurveyUSA) - Obama +10
New Jersey (Fairleigh Dickinson) - Obama +18
New Mexico (PPP) - Obama +17
North Carolina (Insider Advantage) - Tied
Oregon (PPP) - Obama +15
Pennsylvania (Muhlenberg) - Obama +10
Pennsylvania (Strategic Vision) - Obama +5

The big, glaring good news for John McCain here is that we have a second poll in two days showing McCain much closer in Pennsylvania than he's been. Yesterday, Mason Dixon had Obama up by 4 and today, Strategic Vision has Obama up by 5. I said yesterday that Mason Dixon has a Republican lean (Nate Silver estimates it at 2-3 points) and Strategic Vision definitely has a Republican lean. The Muhlenberg tracker does have Pennsylvania narrowing a little bit as well but not to the same level. The good news is all these pollsters have Obama leading there. A new poll has McCain up by 3 in Missouri which is a good result for him right now. But SurveyUSA has Obama tied in Indiana. Again, an Obama win in Indiana would allow him to lose all of Pennsylvania, Ohio, and Florida and still win.

All in all, a pretty good day of polling. Obama down by just 1 in Arizona? Dare to dream? Well, add these two data points to the mix. David Plouffe just announced Obama is going up on the air in Arizona and, on Monday (that's the day before the election), John McCain will be campaigning in ... Arizona. Oof.

We do see some movement towards McCain in a couple of key states (Pennsylvania and Missouri) but we're not seeing much movement towards McCain elsewhere and the kind of movement we're seeing so far is too little, too late. He'll have to close more rapidly to win.

Finally, I'd just like to point out something that leaps out at me from this video and that Sean Quinn at discussed after the first debate. John McCain may like to gamble but he would be an awful, awful poker player. He has trouble hiding his anger or frustration. Ben Smith posted this video in which McCain catches himself speculating on Palin's future in the event his ticket might lose. The key word is "Or:"

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