Sunday, October 26, 2008

Morning Polls

Some internal movement in the Gallup tracker this morning. The Likely Voter II Model (which is the one I tend to trust most) moves from Obama +8 to Obama +9. But the Likely Voter I Model narrows from Obama +7 to Obama +5. Obama does remain at 50% or above in all the Gallup models though. This could mean the two candidates are simply consolidating their bases and Obama's base is less of a traditional voting group. Rasmussen holds steady at Obama +8 and is at 52% for the fourth straight day in that poll. Rasmussen also has McCain's unfavorable rating up to 49%. Hotline moves from Obama +7 to Obama +8. R2000 moves from Obama +12 to Obama +11 and they had Obama up by just 9 in the overnight sample.

Some state polls out this morning:

Arizona (Myers Group) - McCain +4
Georgia (Mason Dixon) - McCain +6
Iowa (Mason Dixon) - Obama +11
Missouri (Mason Dixon) - McCain +1
New Hampshire (UNH) - Obama +15
Pennsylvania (Muhlenberg) - Obama +12
Virginia (PPP) - Obama +9
Wisconsin (Rasmussen) - Obama +7

This is how bad it is for John McCain. The best news in this group for him is the Missouri poll showing him winning by 1. Mason Dixon has a slight Republican lead and, combined with yesterday's poll from R2000 (they have a slight Democratic lean) that showed Obama up by 1, it is clear Missouri is a tossup right now. There is no path to victory for McCain where he does not win Missouri. So he has to hold that state. The Iowa poll from Mason Dixon (again, they have a slight Republican lean) once again begs the question I've been asking for 24 hours. What in the world is John McCain doing in Iowa today?

There are several polls here that are really bad news for McCain. New Hampshire is one blue state the McCain campaign had hoped to pick off. It doesn't look likely. I've never heard of the pollster who conducted the poll in Arizona but that is a disastrous result for McCain if it is an accurate reading. The Virginia poll from PPP is also disastrous news for McCain if it is accurate. The only way McCain can afford to lose Virginia is if he wins Pennsylvania. And the Muhlenberg tracker in Pennsylvania does not show the gap narrowing there (actually, Obama gained a point today).

9 days to go!!!

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