Tuesday, October 28, 2008

Morning Polls

We have seen a couple of key trackers narrow in the last couple of days but we have seen no movement towards McCain whatsoever at the state level.

The Gallup tracker narrows considerably today with the Likely Voter Model II moving from Obama +10 to Obama +7. The "traditional" model is now down to a 2-point Obama lead. Rasmussen holds steady at Obama +5. Hotline holds steady at Obama +8. R2000 moves from Obama +8 to Obama +7. Obama remains at 50% or above in all the trackers. Finally, Pew has a new national poll out. Their poll had Obama up by 14 last week. They have Obama up by 15 this week. Remember that Pew is one of the few pollsters who supplements their interviews with cell-phone only voters which (by Brian Schaffner's rough calculations) probably adds about 4% to Obama's margin in their poll. ARG has a new national poll out that has Obama up by 5 and at 50%.

Just a few state polls out this morning:

Colorado (Insider Advantage) - Obama +8
Georgia (Insider Advantage) - McCain +1
Indiana (R2000) - Obama +1
Montana (Mason Dixon) - McCain +4
Nevada (Suffolk) - Obama +10 (not a typo)
New Hampshire (Mason Dixon) - Obama +11
New Jersey (Strategic Vision) - Obama +15
North Carolina (Mason Dixon) - Tied
Ohio (SurveyUSA) - Obama +4
Pennsylvania (Insider Advantage) - Obama +9
Wisconsin (Strategic Vision) - Obama +9

There is nothing good here for McCain. Well ... he IS holding on in Montana (barely) so far! So he's got that going for him. We have seen several polls out in Ohio recently showing this kind of lead for Obama but seeing it from SurveyUSA is more comfort. Obama retains solid leads in Pennsylvania, Colorado, and Wisconsin. And Indiana appears to be a tossup factoring in R2000's slight Democratic lean. The Nevada poll is also a really big deal. Nobody has shown a lead this big but, even if we assume it is off by 5 points, Obama winning Nevada is TERRIBLE news for McCain. Why? The "Pennsylvania Gamble" requires that McCain hold onto Nevada believe it or not. I said yesterday that the Arizona polls showing that state close were important because they mean Obama is winning in Nevada ... and I was right.

By the way, one other point about early voting. ABC/WP tracker says that, of those who have already voted, Obama is winning by 20 points. Pew says that, of those who have already voted, Obama is winning by 19 points. So, Obama is locking in votes with his lead right now. McCain needs to win on Election Day by a bit just to get to a tie nationally. That's not impossible, but it is not helpful to McCain either.

Also, a top McCain advisor was quoted by Politico's Mike Allen as saying that Sarah Palin is a "whack job." It is a technical term.

1 comment:

Anonymous said...

"whack job."

Its good to see they are not falling apart at the seems...