Friday, October 24, 2008

Morning Polls

On a Friday morning, we get some mixed readings on the direction of the race.

Gallup Likely Voter Model II moves from Obama +6 to Obama +7. Rasmussen holds steady at Obama +7. Hotline moves from Obama +5 to Obama +7 and hits 50% in that poll for the first time in a while. R2000 moves from Obama +10 to Obama +12 on the strength of a +14 overnight sample. ABC/WP tracker moves from Obama +11 to Obama +9 but he remains at 53% in that poll. Democracy Corps has a national poll out that puts Obama ahead by 9 (he was ahead in this poll by 4 just a week ago). The Economist has a national poll out showing Obama up by 8.

At the state level, we have some mixed results:

New Hampshire (Rasmussen) - Obama +4
Iowa (Rasmussen) - Obama +8
Massachusetts (Suffolk) - Obama +19
North Carolina (Rasmussen) - McCain +2
North Carolina (Winthrop) - Obama +1
Virginia (Winthrop) - Obama +1
South Carolina (Winthrop) - McCain +20
Georgia (Insider Advantage) - Obama +1
Georgia (Strategic Vision) - McCain +6
Ohio (Insider Advantage) - Obama +10
Ohio (PPP) - Obama +7
Ohio (Strategic Vision) - McCain +3
Florida (Insider Advantage) - Obama +1
Florida (Strategic Vision) - McCain +2
Pennsylvania (Strategic Vision) - Obama +7
Pennsylvania (Muhlenberg) - Obama +12
Kentucky (R2000) - McCain +16
Alabama (AEA) - McCain +20
Oregon (Riley) - Obama +14
Michigan (EPIC/MRA) - Obama +14

Here we have a lot of state polls by a lot of the pollsters that I trust a bit less and some of the inconsistency shows in these numbers. Take the Winthrop numbers for example. They have the exact same result in Virginia and North Carolina. Whatever the actual numbers really are, it is pretty clear Obama will do relatively better in Virginia by 5-7 points than he does in North Carolina in the end. Or take Insider Advantage. They show Obama up by 1 in Florida AND Obama up by 1 in Georgia. Those states are also not right relative to one another. Then there is Strategic Vision. Their numbers seem reasonable relative to one another but all of their polls are at least 5 points worse for Obama than other pollsters. One other data point of note is that Insider Advantage has Obama up by 10 in Ohio. PPP has Obama up by 7 there and that is the fifth reading from Ohio that has Obama up between 7 and 14 there. I am still skeptical until I see Rasmussen or SurveyUSA produce a number anywhere in this vicinity. But we'll see. Rasmussen does have three polls out today that each have better news for McCain. In North Carolina, they have McCain up by 2. That feels like it is in the right neighborhood even if it is a little worse for Obama than I would expect right now. In New Hampshire, they have Obama up by just 4 and in Iowa, they have Obama up by just 8. Both those numbers are off their highs but Obama should still win these states.

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