Monday, October 13, 2008

Late Polls

Two national polls out this afternoon. Both have Obama up, both have Obama above 50%:

National (Democracy Corps) - Obama +9 (at 51%)
National (Gallup/USA Today) - Obama +7 (at 52%)

A whole bunch of Rasmussen and SurveyUSA polls are out this afternoon. Here they are:

Ohio (Rasmussen) - Obama +2
Florida (Rasmussen) - Obama +5
North Carolina (Rasmussen) - Tied
Virginia (Rasmussen) - Obama +3
Missouri (Rasmussen) - Obama +3
Georgia (SurveyUSA) - McCain +8
New York (SurveyUSA) - Obama +33 (not a typo)
New Jersey (SurveyUSA) - Obama +15
Oregon (SurveyUSA) - Obama +17

The Rasmussen results are tighter than some other pollsters have found (SurveyUSA has Obama up by 8 in Missouri just this morning) but they confirm the findings of others. Obama is winning across the board right now. He is winning in most every poll coming out of Florida right now and it is notable that Obama's National Field Director (Steve Hildebrand) moved his base of operations to Florida recently. Obama is not going to be out-spent or out-organized in the Sunshine State.

The bottom line is there are three weeks to go and McCain needs some kind of tectonic shift in the campaign landscape. The debate (the one in which McCain said he is going to "whip his you-know-what") is one opportunity for McCain to get some big shift. Other than that, he's going to be depending on outside events.

You can see off to the right that Nate Silver's probabilty estimate of an Obama victory is now up to 94.9%. So there.

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