Tuesday, October 28, 2008

Afternoon Polls

The ABC/WP tracker holds steady at Obama +7. The new Ipsos/McClatchy national poll has Obama up by 6, down from an 8-point lead last week.

A few state polls out late today:

Arizona (Cronkite/Eight) - McCain +2
Arkansas (Rasmussen) - McCain +10
Florida (LATimes) - Obama +7
Indiana (Howey-Gauge) - McCain +2
Louisiana (SE Louisiana U.) - McCain +12
Maine (Market Decisions) - Obama +21
Mississippi (Rasmussen) - McCain +8
Nevada (Rasmussen) - Obama +4
New Hampshire (UNH) - Obama +25
Ohio (LATimes) - Obama +9
Pennsylvania (Rasmussen) - Obama +7
Pennsylvania (Muhlenberg) - Obama +12
Virginia (Roanoke) - Obama +9

The narrowing in the Rasmussen poll in Pennsylvania would be a concern if it weren't for the fact that they still have Obama at 53% there. The Muhlenberg tracker in Pennsylvania has Obama up by 12 but also has him at 53%.

As I said this morning, Obama has a lead in Nevada and that is deadly news for McCain. Even though it is a small state, it is crucial to his narrow path to 270 and, additionally, it is a state where we have seen very high early voter turnout and new Democratic registrations. The news from Mississippi is also bad for McCain. McCain will surely win the state but, if it is this close in Mississippi, the race is closer in Georgia (we saw a poll this morning from Georgia that had it very close), Obama probably leads by a little in North Carolina, and he probably leads by a good amount in Virginia ... maybe right about where Roanoke College has it. Current polls bear out all this view of these states in relation to one another.

Is Obama really up by 25 in New Hampshire? No, not even close. But there isn't a lot of good news to be found in that poll for John McCain either. My sense is that Obama probably leads in New Hampshire by right around 10 points.

Then there's the LATimes polls in Ohio and Florida. Oof. Question: Does Rick Davis deliver that kind of news to the candidate or do they find some intern they're planning to fire anyway to do it? "Hey Jimmy, come on in here. Let's have a heart to heart about your future ..."


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