Saturday, October 18, 2008

Morning Polls

Today, the trackers include two days of post-debate interviews. It appears to be another day of tightening ... sort of. Gallup (Likely Voter II Model) moves from Obama +6 to Obama +4. However, Obama moves from up 7 to up 8 in the Registered Voter model. That's kind of an odd change so I'm not sure what to make of it. Rasmussen moves from Obama +4 to Obama +5 (Nate Silver called it). Hotline moves from Obama +10 to Obama +7. R2000 moves from Obama +10 to Obama +7. However, in the TIPP poll (which I haven't included until now), Obama moves from being up 5 to being up 7 overnight.

This should be a VERY slow polling day at the state level:

Pennsylvania (Muhlenberg) - Obama +13
Alaska (R2000) - McCain +19
Oregon (R2000) - Obama +15
North Carolina (R2000) - Obama +2
Wisconsin (UW Milwaukee) - Obama +15
Florida (Hamilton) - Obama +4

No movement there, no surprises there, and no surprises equals good news.

17 days to the 2008 election!!!

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