Wednesday, October 15, 2008

Morning Polls

Gallup moves from Obama +10 to Obama +8. Rasmussen holds steady at Obama +5. Hotline moves from Obama +6 to Obama +7. R2000 holds steady at Obama +11. Battleground moves from Obama +13 to Obama +8. This is the second time it has swung like this overnight and I think I'm going to stop including this tracker as it seems too volatile. A new Pew poll has Obama up by 7 and a new Ipsos/McClatchy poll has Obama up by 9.

Some new state polling out this morning:

Florida (CNN/Time) - Obama +5
Florida (Datamar) - Obama +5
Florida (Insider Advantage) - Obama +4
Colorado (CNN/Time) - Obama +4
Georgia (CNN/Time) - McCain +8
North Carolina (Insider Advantage) - Obama +2
North Carolina (PPP) - Obama +3
Nevada (Insider Advantage) - Obama +3
West Virginia (Insider Advantage) - McCain +2
Washington (SurveyUSA) - Obama +16
New Mexico (SurveyUSA) - Obama +7
South Carolina (SurveyUSA) - McCain +14
Delaware (Rasmussen) - Obama +15
Missouri (CNN/Time) - McCain +1
Missouri (PPP) - Obama +2
Virginia (CNN/Time) - Obama +10

The most interesting result here is in West Virginia. Remember last Thursday ARG had a poll showing Obama ahead in West Virginia by 8. Of that poll, I said, "It is probably very close but I don't think Obama leads." I would say this result today from Insider Advantage probably accurately reflects what my gut was saying then about where the race is in West Virginia.

The other interesting thing about all these numbers is there are only two states on this list that John Kerry won in 2004 and Obama has double-digit leads in both of them but Obama also has clear leads in 6 states listed here that Bush won in 2004 and they are basically tied in 2 more (Missouri and West Virginia). That's where this race is right now. It is all being played on red-state turf.

There's a debate tonight!!!


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