Wednesday, October 22, 2008

More Required Reading on Likely Voter Screens

Nate Silver has a good piece on likely voter screens and which ones seem to be silly. Good stuff.

His explanation outlines why I generally rely (as he does) on the Gallup Likely Voter Model II instead of their "Traditional" model. It is hard to argue with the logic as Nate Silver lays it out but there is a part of me that thinks he is even understating the problem with these voter screens. You have massive numbers of new registered voters in most states, all of whom are thrown out of some of these likely voter models. Additionally, there are some voters who might even be thrown out of an "Expanded" model like Gallup's Model II if they don't currently know where their polling place is but they are planning to vote regardless. As you may know, some people procrastinate but still get things done by the deadline. I don't know anybody like that but I've heard of it.

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