Tuesday, January 31, 2012

Florida Prediction

I'm going to go out on a limb (a little) and predict that Gingrich only loses by 9. Most media outlets expect Romney to win by 12-15. Nate Silver's final projection has Romney winning by 15.

My prediction:

Romney 41
Gingrich 32
Santorum 17
Paul 9

If my prediction is roughly correct with regard to the overall margin, then the really close race tonight is whether Romney or Gingrich will win among "conservatives." As I've noted, PPP shows Gingrich leading among those who identify themselves as "very conservative." Romney has a similar lead among those who describe themselves as "somewhat conservative." And Romney crushes Gingrich among moderates and liberals.

So does Romney win among conservatives? I'm going to say he pulls it out by a very small margin but it is close.

And that is his big problem going forward.

No comments: