Santorum is the Biggest Threat to Romney

Are you very conservative? If you are, you don't like Mitt Romney. In Florida, where Romney has outspent Gingrich by a 5 to 1 margin, Willard is still losing to Gingrich by 7 among the "very conservative" and Romney is losing by 7 among "tea partiers." Indeed, it is only among moderates that Romney beats Gingrich. Among everyone who self-identifies as a conservative, Gingrich is effectively tied with Romney.

These numbers come from the latest PPP poll. Among the "very conservative," it is Gingrich 36, Romney 29, and Santorum 24. And this is the key to Romney's big vulnerability going forward. Romney can continue to outspend Gingrich and win states. But that's not bringing very conservative voters to his side. So here's the nightmare scenario for Romney: What happens if Santorum drops out? Where do those voters go? Let me posit this. If you're supporting Rick Santorum, you're really committed to some crazy. You like some crazy. Not just the run-of-the-mill "I want to build a border fence with 3 moats" kind of crazy. I'm talking "Let's outlaw contraceptives" crazy. If that's your brand of crazy, you're not getting on board the yacht with Thurston Howell just yet. You're getting on board a space rocket and headed to that moon base Newton Leroy is planning.

The media seems very focused on the storyline that Romney's winning Florida and pulling away and oh boy, this is going to be a blowout, etc.! Let's say all that happens. Mitt may face a nightmare at that moment. Santorum could leave the race. And then we'll see whether Mitt can get his party's base behind him. I'm not so sure.