The PPP Poll

PPP is a very good pollster and their poll out tonight has Paul at 20%, Romney at 19%, and Santorum at 18%.

This poll is even more good news for Santorum and it is fairly good news for Paul and it is fairly bad news for Romney.

Romney: The topline of 19% is bad, bad, bad. The internals of the poll suggest that if there is a lot of seniors coming out (which normally happens), then Romney will do better than 19% and probably win. But they are not predicting the usual turnout and Romney is not the type of candidate likely to finish "strong." He's basically trying to win by tearing down the others.

Paul: It does seem Paul's decline has leveled off. He's not going up from here (at least not by much). But he doesn't seem to be dropping much below 20% at this point either.

Santorum: My post on the Des Moines Register poll applies here and seems mildly confirmed by this poll. Santorum has the most room for growth. And, if you take this poll seriously, Santorum has room to grow and is statistically tied with Romney and Paul. Santorum is probably a better than a 12% bet (Nate Silver's latest number) to win Iowa at this point. I'm gonna say he's as good as a 25% bet to win. UPDATE: Nate Silver's model updated with the PPP poll numbers has Santorum as a 24% bet to win.