Tuesday, January 3, 2012

My Iowa Predictions

Romney - 26%
Santorum - 24%
Paul - 20%

So there. No point in even watching the coverage this evening.

Actually, the coverage is the whole story because the numbers are meaningless except to the extent they inform the spin. So, what will the spin be if these are the numbers?

Romney: His camp will tout the win in Iowa and begin the mantra of New Hampshire is next and it is an "important test" and so on. The problem for Romney is that he will have won Iowa with just 26%. 74% are for somebody else and those somebody elses are similar enough to one another that it is kind of an embarrassment that so few people support Romney. Tea Party people will make a big deal about this, they will eventually be ignored, and the quality of life will improve.

Santorum: This is a strong enough showing that he will raise a little money from this and get some momentum heading into New Hampshire. A second place showing there is possible. Lost in the shuffle of the Iowa Santorum Surge is the fact that Santorum has a decent organization in New Hampshire as well. But Santorum will not get enough money or enough of a bump to really threaten Romney. The national media will try to make it so, they will be ignored, and the quality of life will improve.

Paul: Just a few points behind Romney, this is still a slight disappointment for Paul. He'll certainly remain in the race for the long haul but, at a certain point, he will start to be ignored again, and the quality of life will improve.

Gingrich: He likely comes in fourth tonight. He will say he's going to fight in New Hampshire and make his stand in South Carolina. He won't place in the top two in either one, then he too will be ignored, and the quality of life will be awesome!

Perry: Fifth place is likely for Perry tonight. He will probably skip New Hampshire and try to make a stand in South Carolina. There is no rationale for Perry going on. Combined with his PAC, he's spent more than anyone and has only slid backwards. He will remain in the race for now though for no good reason other than he's from Texas and "this is like the Alamo." It will not dawn on him that everyone who fought to the death in the Alamo died.

Bachmann: Sixth place is probably assured for Bachmann and she will probably leave the race in the next 24 hours. Nobody will be affected by this.

Huntsman: He's been staked out in New Hampshire hoping that having the state to himself for several weeks will help him. It will not. He will be leaving the race in the 24 hours after the New Hampshire Primary. As Huntsman said the other day, "In Iowa they pick corn. In New Hampshire, they pick presidents." Neither place is picking Huntsman.

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