Monday, January 9, 2012

Mitt Romney's Very, Very Bad, No Good, Horrible Day ...

... and then there's this:

Romney is having a bad day and some (not all) polling shows his numbers eroding a bit in New Hampshire. Will it be enough for Romney to lose in New Hampshire? No. Will it be enough for Romney to "lose" New Hampshire? Possibly.

Romney can "lose" New Hampshire by having a significantly worse-than-expected showing. What is worse than expected? How about ...

1) ... failing to match one's percentage of the vote from 2008? Romney got 31.56% in 2008. It seems unlikely he'll go below that this time ... but it is possible.

2) ... failing to reach his vote total from 2008? There was a lot of energy on the Democratic side sucking up votes that will be there in 2012. So this is very unlikely.

3) ... failing to finish more than 10% ahead of all his rivals. Expectations for Romney's dominance in New Hampshire have been so high that failing to win in a walk would be bad. Paul and Huntsman have both been gaining steam in New Hampshire. Again possible but unlikely.

So, the best-case scenario for Romney in New Hampshire right now is that he meets expectations and wins with say, 40% - 45%. There will be very little bump in the polls from that. There are some bad scenarios for Tuesday night to be watched. Those aren't likely but they are more likely than they were 24 hours ago.

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