Friday, January 27, 2012

Newt(ron) Bomb

Well ... we've reached the limits of Newt puns which is one indicator his righteous campaign to become President of the United States of South Carolina (Colbert had it right after all) has run its course. But wait ... there's more.

The polls were looking bad for Gingrich before last night's debate in Florida and last night's debate is not going to help Newton any. So, if we had to bet now, I'd say Newt loses Florida by about 9 or 10. Newt is about that far behind in the polls and I don't think he's going to drop much further. If that's what happens though, I'm not sure this (Fig) Newton is fully cooked (Hey, there's another pun!!!).

Gingrich will still have a rationale for going forward. It is not a reasonable rationale ... ya know, one where he could reasonably still be the nominee. But this is a guy who applied to be President of his College as a second-year Assistant Professor. He's not one to need a "reasonable" rationale. Any rationale will do.

So, then we start to look beyond Florida. Romney has more money, better organization, and lots more establishment support. Also, there's fewer debates going forward for Gingrich to change the game so how can he make this a race? Here's a few (unreasonable) ideas.

1) Gingrich does still lead the national head-to-head against Romney. That is a bit of a lagging indicator and he will likely drop again but he's not going to drop as far as he did the first time. There is some anti-Romney sentiment that has coalesced around Gingrich that won't go away easily.

2) Gingrich does lead in some particular states between now and Super Tuesday. He apparently leads by a lot in Minnesota don't ya know. It is conceivable he could win a state and get some momentum back.

3) Romney is still Romney. He's really quite an awful candidate. He's stumbled since just before Iowa as he has received more media attention. There's always the possiblity that he really says stupid things or does stupid things like hiding his money in a Swiss bank account. Gingrich will keep going because, if Romney really falls apart (not likely but possible), Gingrich would be best positioned to pick up the pieces of the nomination. So why not hang around a while?

Bottom line, the fun is not over even though Romney seems to have re-gained his balance by solving the riddle of Newtonian (hey!!!) politics.

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