Sunday, September 21, 2008

Morning Polls

Today’s trackers would appear to show what I thought we would see a couple of days ago … Obama’s surge in the polls has stalled. Gallup moved from Obama +6 to Obama +4, Hotline and Rasmussen both remain steady at Obama +1, Research 2000 moves from Obama +8 to Obama +7. I suspect tomorrow will see further erosion in the Gallup tracker as Thursday night’s strong polling for Obama will cycle out then.

We also see some good news/bad news in the state-level polling. On the upside, Research 2000 has a poll out in Florida showing Obama down by just 1 there. That would be good news if it is accurate. I think Obama is close there but I don’t know if he’s that close. A Miami Herald poll has Obama down just 2 in Florida though. Bottom line is that Obama is certainly in the game there and he is scheduled to spend some significant time in the Tampa area this week while preparing for the debate. So he’s surely in the game in FL. Also, a Research 2000 Iowa poll confirms what a poll showed last week – Obama has built a double-digit lead in the Hawkeye state (14 points in this new one). Taking Iowa and New Mexico out of play is a really key step forward for Obama as it allows him to win any ONE of a large number of battlegrounds to win the presidency. And I think he’s got NM and IA.

On the downside, a University of Cincinnati poll has Obama down 6 in Ohio. I don’t buy it. I could see Obama being down by 2 or 3 but not 6. And here’s some more reason to think it is nonsense. The poll was taken Sept. 12 to 16, including 3 days of interviews before the financial meltdown on Wall Street. Who releases a poll 5 days after you finish interviewing? Are they doing the math by hand?

The first debate is Friday night. Bumpy road ahead.

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