Monday, September 29, 2008

Morning Polls

Gallup holds steady at Obama +8. Rasmussen goes from Obama +6 to Obama +5. R2000 goes from Obama +7 to Obama +9. Hotline remains steady at Obama +5. Importantly, Obama remains at or above 50% in 3 of the 4 trackers. Gallup – 50. Rasmussen – 50. R2000 – 51. Things look very stable (for now) at the national level.

A lot of state polls will be coming out today. Rasmussen alone will have polls from PA, OH, FL, VA, and CO. Morning Call has a PA poll out this morning showing Obama up by 7. He was up by 4 in the same poll a week ago. SurveyUSA has a poll out in Florida this morning. 11 days ago, they had McCain up by 6. Today, they have McCain up by just 1. Additionally, when you look behind the numbers at that poll, SurveyUSA has African-Americans going for Obama 79-21. I’m sorry but John McCain is NOT going to get 21% of the African-American vote in Florida. If he gets 10%, he’s having a spectacular day. So that state is likely a dead heat at best for McCain. We’ll see more polling there later today.

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