Tuesday, September 23, 2008

Morning Polls

The tracking polls are slipping a bit back in McCain’s direction. This is something I expected last week but it is not a big shift and Obama does appear to still have a small lead. Rasmussen has it tied and Hotline has slipped from Obama +5 to Obama +4. Gallup has moved from Obama +4 to Obama +3 and Research 2000 has remained the same at Obama +6. A new CNN national poll out last night has Obama up by 4. ARG (who I don’t trust very much) has a national poll out showing Obama up by 2.

But there is a LOT of good news for Obama in the state-level polling. Quinnipiac has 4 polls out in battlegrounds this morning and they have Obama winning in all 4 of them. The lead in Minnesota is closer than we’d like but the lead in Wisconsin, Michigan, and Colorado all look healthy.

Mason Dixon had a poll out in PA yesterday that showed Obama up by 2 there. It is a little disconcerting that PA is that close and that bears watching. But today Mason Dixon has a poll out in FL that also shows Obama up by 2 there. I figured Obama was down by 2 or 3 points in FL so this poll is a nice surprise. We’ll see in the coming days if other polls show a similar result

Yet another poll in Iowa shows a big lead for Obama this morning so I think it is safe to say Iowa and New Mexico are all but done. ARG has a few state polls out today (I said above I don’t trust their polls much) and the only really relevant one shows Obama up by 4 in Pennsylvania. That would be a decent result if accurate.

Finally, if you’re like me and you go to pollster.com frequently to see their electoral college map, you may notice a big difference this morning. They have moved FL and NC out of the “lean McCain” column and into tossup and they have moved MI and WI from tossup to “leaning Obama.” As a result, Obama has moved out to a lead in their electoral college map.

Just 42 days to the election. Keep working, keep donating, and make sure to move to a battleground state and get registered right away!



McCain 45, Obama 47

Obama +2



Obama 48, McCain 44

Obama +4



Obama 47, McCain 45

Obama +2



Obama 49, McCain 42

Obama +7



Obama 49, McCain 45

Obama +4

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