Tuesday, September 30, 2008

Morning Polls

Is it possible that Obama has not yet peaked???

I must say I could not have imagined Obama’s lead getting bigger. And yet … Rasmussen went from Obama +5 to Obama +6. Hotline went from Obama +5 to Obama +6. R2000 went from Obama +9 to Obama +10. Gallup did move down from Obama +8 to Obama +6. More importantly, Obama is now ABOVE 50% in 2 of the polls (he’s at 51% in Rasmussen and R2000).

By the way, there is another tracking poll out there called the GW/Battleground Tracking Poll. It has been WAY out of step with the others, showing McCain with a consistent small lead for weeks now. Yesterday, they had McCain up by 2 nationally. Nate Silver had a fantastic column yesterday ripping into them for failing to weight by age (31% of their sample is in the 65+ age group despite the fact that just 19% of the electorate was from this group in 2004, for instance) and explaining why they are more off now than they have been before even though they’ve always used this flawed methodology. Anyway, even THEIR poll now shows Obama leading (up 2 nationally this morning).

A new PPP poll out in Florida has Obama +3. PPP is an odd polling organization in that they seem to have a Democratic lean in some states and seem to be spot on in others. During the primaries, PPP nailed the result perfectly in North Carolina and Wisconsin but they were way off in Pennsylvania. Still, this can’t be seen as anything but another encouraging result in Florida for Obama.

Consistent with all this, Bush’s approval rating in the Gallup Poll has dropped to a new low … 27%. Ouch. Nixon was in the mid-20s when he resigned in 1974. Suddenly, Nixon ain’t so bad!

Barack Obama has a new 2-minute ad on the economy he’s airing in some battleground states. It is a straight talk piece on the economy and it is good:


Also, John McCain seems to think Venezuela is in the Middle East:


Can you imagine if Barack Obama had made a verbal gaffe like that? What would the Republicans say?

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