Mitt Romney's got an Ohio problem. When Romney edged Santorum in Ohio, many in the Republican establishment breathed a sigh of relief similar to when Romney edged Santorum in Michigan. It was an important step on the way to Romney locking down the nomination.
But Romney's weakness in Ohio and, frankly, in many of these industrial midwest states like Michigan and Wisconsin seems to be enduring. I have noticed over several weeks and months that Romney seems to be doing a little worse in Ohio than he's doing in his national numbers.
Today, Rasmussen released an Ohio poll showing Obama ahead of Romney 46-42. A week ago, Fox News had a poll showing Obama ahead of Romney 45-39. Let's look at some data. Here is Pollster.com's summary of the race in Ohio:
There have been 10 polls of Ohio with this particular trial heat in 2012 and only one (a Fox Poll in February) showed Romney winning Ohio. The other 9 polls have shown Obama leading by between 2 and 12 points.
Nationally, Pollster's aggregation shows Obama with a smaller lead:
So what's going on in Ohio? I think we can posit a few possibilities: Ohio's anti-union ballot proposition has galvanized union voters to some extent. Additionally, Ohio is home to a lot of parts suppliers for the auto industry and Romney's opposition to the auto bailout hurt him there as much as it did in Michigan. Finally, Ohio's Republicans are more downscale than Republicans in say, New York or California and these are voters more likely to support Santorum than Romney. These same voters won't support Obama and the vast majority of them will vote for Romney in the Fall. But it is not easy for Romney to bring them around and some small number of them staying home can mean big trouble for Romney.
Regardless of the cause of Romney's Ohio struggles, one thing is clear. Ohio is critical for Romney. Romney CANNOT win without Ohio. Obama can win without Ohio though he'd probably have to win Florida and some other states that are tossups and he's not likely to win Florida if he loses Ohio. So Ohio is important and if Romney is going to consistently be weaker in Ohio than his national average, it makes his margin for error in the campaign to come quite a bit slimmer.
Showing posts with label Santorum. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Santorum. Show all posts
Saturday, April 21, 2012
Wednesday, March 14, 2012
Does Romney Want Gingrich Out?
The conventional wisdom (and I agree with it) is that Romney will be worse off if Gingrich gets out of the race or if Gingrich stays in the race but fades as I argued last night he is likely to do.
But there is a counter-argument to be made that Gingrich actually hurts Romney more by staying in the race. It is exceedingly unlikely that anyone will catch Romney in terms of the number of delegates he accrues. But it is also increasingly possible (not likely but possible) that Romney could get to the convention without a majority of delegates in hand. Here is some data posted by Kos on the number and percentage of remaining delegates the candidates would need to win to get an absolute majority of delegates:
This was prior to last night's contests but Romney won about half the delegates last night so his percentage has not been significantly affected. He still needs to keep winning about half the delegates from here on out.
The argument for Gingrich staying in the race is that it might be harder for Romney to win half the delegates with Gingrich in the race than with him out of the race. Patricia Murphy argues this is exactly Gingrich's strategy. Gingrich figures that, like in Alabama and Mississippi, the number of delegates Santorum and Gingrich will win combined will be more than what Santorum could win on his own. But, for the reasons I pointed out last night, it is as stupid a Gingrich idea as his moon colony.
Gingrich's support among voters is drying up as we speak. His cash is basically all gone. He will be a more and more distant third place in future contests. That means he won't be winning delegates at all. Indeed, he'll likely be costing Santorum delegates in places by splitting just enough of the anti-Romney vote.
Democrats and possibly most Republicans would love for Mitt Romney to get out of the race as Paul Begala requests:
If the Republican primary electorate really doesn't want Mitt Romney, the best way for them to realistically avoid that is for Newt Gingrich to get out of the race.
But there is a counter-argument to be made that Gingrich actually hurts Romney more by staying in the race. It is exceedingly unlikely that anyone will catch Romney in terms of the number of delegates he accrues. But it is also increasingly possible (not likely but possible) that Romney could get to the convention without a majority of delegates in hand. Here is some data posted by Kos on the number and percentage of remaining delegates the candidates would need to win to get an absolute majority of delegates:
This was prior to last night's contests but Romney won about half the delegates last night so his percentage has not been significantly affected. He still needs to keep winning about half the delegates from here on out.
The argument for Gingrich staying in the race is that it might be harder for Romney to win half the delegates with Gingrich in the race than with him out of the race. Patricia Murphy argues this is exactly Gingrich's strategy. Gingrich figures that, like in Alabama and Mississippi, the number of delegates Santorum and Gingrich will win combined will be more than what Santorum could win on his own. But, for the reasons I pointed out last night, it is as stupid a Gingrich idea as his moon colony.
Gingrich's support among voters is drying up as we speak. His cash is basically all gone. He will be a more and more distant third place in future contests. That means he won't be winning delegates at all. Indeed, he'll likely be costing Santorum delegates in places by splitting just enough of the anti-Romney vote.
Democrats and possibly most Republicans would love for Mitt Romney to get out of the race as Paul Begala requests:
Let me be the first to call on Mitt Romney to get out of the race. By placing third in Alabama and Mississippi, losing to Rick Santorum and Newt Gingrich in both states, Romney has gone from inevitable to unelectable. Somebody strap him to the roof of one of his Cadillacs and drive him off to one of his many mansions.But that's not going to happen.
One of the great legends of political consulting is the Dog Food Problem: an apocryphal tale of a company that had the best packaging, the best advertising, the best marketing. But there was only one problem: the dog wouldn't eat it. Forevermore we should no longer call it a Dog Food Problem. We should call it a Mitt Romney Problem.
If the Republican primary electorate really doesn't want Mitt Romney, the best way for them to realistically avoid that is for Newt Gingrich to get out of the race.
Tuesday, March 13, 2012
Deep Trouble in the Deep South
Santorum's wins in Alabama and Mississippi are really quite bad news for Romney. They are not a problem in the sense that something major has changed. The problem is that nothing has changed. The tweet of the night goes to Chuck Todd:
It is bad news because Gingrich is now going to fade away. Gingrich may or may not get out of the race. He said tonight he won't. Sometimes, candidates reevaluate the day after. And sometimes (I'm looking at you Rick Perry), candidates even re-reevaluate. But it sorta doesn't matter as much in Gingrich's case. Santorum has clearly become the anti-Romney and Gingrich's cash is drying up. John Harwood reported on MSNBC tonight that Sheldon Adelson is not writing any more checks for Gingrich. Voters who do not like Romney have seen all they need to see. Romney outspent Santorum 5 to 1 in Alabama and even Gingrich outspent Santorum in Alabama ... and Santorum still won ... in a state that borders Newt's stronghold of Georgia. If Gingrich cannot win Alabama, he cannot win anywhere.
So, even if Gingrich stays in, voters will abandon him. Where do these voters go? PPP tweeted this tonight:
Next week, Illinois votes and the latest poll has Romney nominally ahead. So far, Romney has spent approximately $3.2M in Illinois and Santorum has spent exactly ZERO. How many times in this race have we said, "If Romney loses [insert state name here], then it will cause panic!!!" Well, let's all say it together then ...
If Romney loses Illinois, then it will cause panic!!!
In Sept '11, we said we didn't know how Romney gets the nomination and we don't know how he's denied it. Nothing has changed.Precisely. Well, if nothing has changed, why is the result tonight such bad news for Romney?
It is bad news because Gingrich is now going to fade away. Gingrich may or may not get out of the race. He said tonight he won't. Sometimes, candidates reevaluate the day after. And sometimes (I'm looking at you Rick Perry), candidates even re-reevaluate. But it sorta doesn't matter as much in Gingrich's case. Santorum has clearly become the anti-Romney and Gingrich's cash is drying up. John Harwood reported on MSNBC tonight that Sheldon Adelson is not writing any more checks for Gingrich. Voters who do not like Romney have seen all they need to see. Romney outspent Santorum 5 to 1 in Alabama and even Gingrich outspent Santorum in Alabama ... and Santorum still won ... in a state that borders Newt's stronghold of Georgia. If Gingrich cannot win Alabama, he cannot win anywhere.
So, even if Gingrich stays in, voters will abandon him. Where do these voters go? PPP tweeted this tonight:
Our NC GOP poll coming out tomorrow shows an 8 point shift toward Santorum if Newt was out. Nothing but a spoiler at this pointAnd I think we'll see he's not a very good spoiler at that.
Next week, Illinois votes and the latest poll has Romney nominally ahead. So far, Romney has spent approximately $3.2M in Illinois and Santorum has spent exactly ZERO. How many times in this race have we said, "If Romney loses [insert state name here], then it will cause panic!!!" Well, let's all say it together then ...
If Romney loses Illinois, then it will cause panic!!!
Saturday, March 10, 2012
Sunday, March 4, 2012
Was Michigan a Crippling Blow for Santorum?
I think it really was but first, let me tell you all the reasons why you might think I'm wrong.
First, Romney's victory in Michigan was not a blowout and he had to employ some messy backroom dealings to win the most delegates. Furthermore, it is likely that Romney will lose badly in Georgia, the biggest Super Tuesday prize in terms of delegates. Indeed, when you look at the Super Tuesday map, there are a few other delegate-rich states where Romney will likely lose including Oklahoma and Tennessee. Finally, the latest polls seem to indicate Romney is still just a couple of points behind in Ohio. Romney will surely win more delegates in Ohio because of the ineptness of the Santorum campaign but a popular-vote loss in Ohio would really look bad. As for the delegates, I suppose one would rather win more delegates than not but (and I've argued quite a bit with Jon Keller about this) the delegate count is really irrelevant in just the same way that the Super Delegates really didn't matter in the end in 2008. There was simply no way the person "perceived to win" more states and more delegates was going to have the nomination taken away from him (or her) in 2008 because of elites in the party and it isn't going to happen in 2012 either.
In addition to all of that, there is the possibility that Gingrich will bow out of the race after Super Tuesday because he'll only win his "home" state of Georgia and won't be very competitive elsewhere. A little more than a month ago, John Sides and Lynn Vavreck posted some data to support their argument that Gingrich or Santorum dropping out would not help the other. In other words, they argue quite a bit of the "not Romney" vote would go to Romney rather than just coalescing behind the last "not Romney" standing. Nate Silver presented at least some data to contradict Sides and Vavreck.
So, that's a lot of reasons to think Romney has not quite locked down the nomination. But here's why the race for the nomination really is over.
1) The Narrative - The way Romney won Michigan was more important than the fact that he only won by 3 points. He was trailing in most polls (by a lot in some) until about a week before the primary. Because Michigan is one of Romney's "home" states, the race there became a key test of his campaign. So, expectations were set low (ie, "he may lose") and it was viewed as important (ie, "he has to win"). By winning, even by a little bit, Romney emerged with something a lot more important than delegates. He emerged with momentum and the sense that his campaign had exceeded expectations.
2) Organization - Ohio is not the only place the Santorum campaign's lack of organization has hurt them. Virginia votes on Super Tuesday and both Gingrich and Santorum failed to get on the ballot there. More generally, the Santorum campaign has been remarkably inept in its messaging. Santorum himself has a tendency to say things that are controversial. In some senses, this is what many of his supporters like about him. But it would help a lot to have a real campaign organization that would put the candidate's comments in context or put the right spin on them and it would help to have a campaign organization that can respond to Romney's criticism's of the candidate. These are all but absent.
3) Gingrich - Does Gingrich leave the race after Super Tuesday? My prediction is that he won't. Alabama and Mississippi vote one week later on March 13. I'm not a psychologist but Newt Gingrich's ego doesn't need much in the way of evidence to convince him America fundamentally needs him. His "big" win in Georgia might be enough and, if Santorum does even a little worse than expected on Tuesday, Gingrich will have even more reason to believe he is the alternative to Romney everyone has been waiting for. I know this is silly. But it is really how Gingrich thinks. He's silly.
4) Money - You may have heard that Mitt Romney is independently wealthy. Even with his fundraising troubles, Romney has the money to go on and the others simply don't. They can go on in the technical sense but they don't have much money and that gap is going to grow after Super Tuesday as fewer and fewer people believe there is a path to victory for Santorum or Gingrich. How bad is the money situation for Gingrich? To date, he's still raised less money than Rick Perry ... who quit the race for the second time before South Carolina and endorsed Gingrich. How bad is the money situation for Santorum? Even accounting for the $4.5M he's raised so far in the first quarter of 2012, he's still raised less money than Michele Bachmann and about the same amount as Jon Huntsman ... who quit the race after New Hampshire because nobody outside of New Hampshire supported him. The trickle of money Gingrich and Santorum were raising is going to dry up further after Tuesday.
I'm not saying Santorum (or Gingrich as I've stated above) will drop out after Tuesday. But the race is likely to be effectively over. And, when we look back, I think it will be the case that Michigan was where the race really ended. Before Michigan, Romney was in some trouble and there was a lot of discussion of whether someone else would jump in the race if Romney was defeated there. After Michigan, Romney has been viewed as back in the driver's seat and he followed up with a win in Washington where polls suggested he was losing just a week and a half ago. The worst-case scenario (losing Ohio by a small margin) on Tuesday still has Romney winning most of the states and the vast majority of delegates across all 10 states. There is simply not likely to be any more oxygen for Santorum or Gingrich.
First, Romney's victory in Michigan was not a blowout and he had to employ some messy backroom dealings to win the most delegates. Furthermore, it is likely that Romney will lose badly in Georgia, the biggest Super Tuesday prize in terms of delegates. Indeed, when you look at the Super Tuesday map, there are a few other delegate-rich states where Romney will likely lose including Oklahoma and Tennessee. Finally, the latest polls seem to indicate Romney is still just a couple of points behind in Ohio. Romney will surely win more delegates in Ohio because of the ineptness of the Santorum campaign but a popular-vote loss in Ohio would really look bad. As for the delegates, I suppose one would rather win more delegates than not but (and I've argued quite a bit with Jon Keller about this) the delegate count is really irrelevant in just the same way that the Super Delegates really didn't matter in the end in 2008. There was simply no way the person "perceived to win" more states and more delegates was going to have the nomination taken away from him (or her) in 2008 because of elites in the party and it isn't going to happen in 2012 either.
In addition to all of that, there is the possibility that Gingrich will bow out of the race after Super Tuesday because he'll only win his "home" state of Georgia and won't be very competitive elsewhere. A little more than a month ago, John Sides and Lynn Vavreck posted some data to support their argument that Gingrich or Santorum dropping out would not help the other. In other words, they argue quite a bit of the "not Romney" vote would go to Romney rather than just coalescing behind the last "not Romney" standing. Nate Silver presented at least some data to contradict Sides and Vavreck.
So, that's a lot of reasons to think Romney has not quite locked down the nomination. But here's why the race for the nomination really is over.
1) The Narrative - The way Romney won Michigan was more important than the fact that he only won by 3 points. He was trailing in most polls (by a lot in some) until about a week before the primary. Because Michigan is one of Romney's "home" states, the race there became a key test of his campaign. So, expectations were set low (ie, "he may lose") and it was viewed as important (ie, "he has to win"). By winning, even by a little bit, Romney emerged with something a lot more important than delegates. He emerged with momentum and the sense that his campaign had exceeded expectations.
2) Organization - Ohio is not the only place the Santorum campaign's lack of organization has hurt them. Virginia votes on Super Tuesday and both Gingrich and Santorum failed to get on the ballot there. More generally, the Santorum campaign has been remarkably inept in its messaging. Santorum himself has a tendency to say things that are controversial. In some senses, this is what many of his supporters like about him. But it would help a lot to have a real campaign organization that would put the candidate's comments in context or put the right spin on them and it would help to have a campaign organization that can respond to Romney's criticism's of the candidate. These are all but absent.
3) Gingrich - Does Gingrich leave the race after Super Tuesday? My prediction is that he won't. Alabama and Mississippi vote one week later on March 13. I'm not a psychologist but Newt Gingrich's ego doesn't need much in the way of evidence to convince him America fundamentally needs him. His "big" win in Georgia might be enough and, if Santorum does even a little worse than expected on Tuesday, Gingrich will have even more reason to believe he is the alternative to Romney everyone has been waiting for. I know this is silly. But it is really how Gingrich thinks. He's silly.
4) Money - You may have heard that Mitt Romney is independently wealthy. Even with his fundraising troubles, Romney has the money to go on and the others simply don't. They can go on in the technical sense but they don't have much money and that gap is going to grow after Super Tuesday as fewer and fewer people believe there is a path to victory for Santorum or Gingrich. How bad is the money situation for Gingrich? To date, he's still raised less money than Rick Perry ... who quit the race for the second time before South Carolina and endorsed Gingrich. How bad is the money situation for Santorum? Even accounting for the $4.5M he's raised so far in the first quarter of 2012, he's still raised less money than Michele Bachmann and about the same amount as Jon Huntsman ... who quit the race after New Hampshire because nobody outside of New Hampshire supported him. The trickle of money Gingrich and Santorum were raising is going to dry up further after Tuesday.
I'm not saying Santorum (or Gingrich as I've stated above) will drop out after Tuesday. But the race is likely to be effectively over. And, when we look back, I think it will be the case that Michigan was where the race really ended. Before Michigan, Romney was in some trouble and there was a lot of discussion of whether someone else would jump in the race if Romney was defeated there. After Michigan, Romney has been viewed as back in the driver's seat and he followed up with a win in Washington where polls suggested he was losing just a week and a half ago. The worst-case scenario (losing Ohio by a small margin) on Tuesday still has Romney winning most of the states and the vast majority of delegates across all 10 states. There is simply not likely to be any more oxygen for Santorum or Gingrich.
Tuesday, February 28, 2012
Romney's Other Problem
President Obama came out swinging today speaking to the UAW. It was a good day to give a speech pointing out how wrong Mitt Romney was on the auto bailout ... and everything else. More generally, if Romney is struggling to beat Santorum among Republicans, how's he going to beat this guy in the Fall?
Democrats for Santorum
Will Democrats give Michigan to Santorum? The final night of the PPP poll in MI has Santorum nominally in the lead 38-37 and Santorum did better than that on the final night of polling (39-34) so perhaps Santorum is finishing strong.
But buried in the numbers was this nugget: Democrats, who make up a very small portion (8%) of likely voters in the Republican primary, favor Santorum 47-10. This 37-point lead among 8% of voters amounts to a 3-point edge in the topline numbers. If PPP's poll is an accurate snapshot of what will happen tomorrow, Democrats will have given Michigan to Santorum. My official prediction for Michigan tomorrow?
Santorum - 40
Romney - 38
Paul - 14
If that is roughly the outcome, we're in for a very long primary fight. Santorum has a bunch of states he can win on Super Tuesday.
But buried in the numbers was this nugget: Democrats, who make up a very small portion (8%) of likely voters in the Republican primary, favor Santorum 47-10. This 37-point lead among 8% of voters amounts to a 3-point edge in the topline numbers. If PPP's poll is an accurate snapshot of what will happen tomorrow, Democrats will have given Michigan to Santorum. My official prediction for Michigan tomorrow?
Santorum - 40
Romney - 38
Paul - 14
If that is roughly the outcome, we're in for a very long primary fight. Santorum has a bunch of states he can win on Super Tuesday.
Sunday, February 26, 2012
Michigan, the Nomination Fight, and NASCAR
This is not quite what is meant by "being the NASCAR candidate." Asked today whether he follows NASCAR, Romney said:
The latest PPP poll has Romney up 2 in MI. I suspect Romney will win a close race in MI on Tuesday night and he'll blow Santorum out in Arizona. What should Santorum do? Santorum should spend some time on Tuesday night asking Republican voters a simple question. "Do you want a candidate who can only win the nomination by tearing others down?" That's what Romney appears to have done again, this time in Michigan. According to PPP, in the last week in MI, Santorum's net favorability has dropped from +44 (67/23) to +15 (54/39).
I'm not being all pollyannish about this. I know negative campaigning is not exclusive to the Romney camp. But I'm not sure I've ever seen a candidate get as far as Romney has on negative campaigning alone. He has no positive message branding. Quick ... what is Romney's economic plan? What's his plan for Afghanistan? I don't know his position on anything. I don't think Republican voters do either. Santorum should ask those questions. What is Mitt Romney for? When will he win a significant state without tearing down everybody else?
The advice is free Rick.
Not as closely as some of the most ardent fans, but I have some friends who are NASCAR team owners.NASCAR Fail
The latest PPP poll has Romney up 2 in MI. I suspect Romney will win a close race in MI on Tuesday night and he'll blow Santorum out in Arizona. What should Santorum do? Santorum should spend some time on Tuesday night asking Republican voters a simple question. "Do you want a candidate who can only win the nomination by tearing others down?" That's what Romney appears to have done again, this time in Michigan. According to PPP, in the last week in MI, Santorum's net favorability has dropped from +44 (67/23) to +15 (54/39).
I'm not being all pollyannish about this. I know negative campaigning is not exclusive to the Romney camp. But I'm not sure I've ever seen a candidate get as far as Romney has on negative campaigning alone. He has no positive message branding. Quick ... what is Romney's economic plan? What's his plan for Afghanistan? I don't know his position on anything. I don't think Republican voters do either. Santorum should ask those questions. What is Mitt Romney for? When will he win a significant state without tearing down everybody else?
The advice is free Rick.
Friday, February 17, 2012
Where Are We?
Nate Silver points out what you probably were already sensing:
Nationally, Romney appears to have lost his lead to Santorum:
Rick Santorum, the guy who lost his re-election bid in Pennsylvania by almost 20 points, is beating Mitt Romney.
The numbers at the state level are not good for Romney. He's losing in Michigan. He's losing really, really badly in Ohio, by 18 points according to Rasmussen. He's not only losing badly to Gingrich in Georgia but Santorum is about tied with him for second there so Gingrich + Santorum in Georgia is truly horrific for him. Romney is not up by much in Arizona. Rasmussen has a new poll out there that has him ahead by just 8 and PPP is polling the state now. My guess is they will show a smaller lead for Romney by the end of the weekend.
Meanwhile, various polls have Obama moving ahead of Romney in trial heats nationally. CNN has Obama over 50% and ahead by 5. Democracy Corps has Obama ahead by 4.
The question right now is simply whether things are just bad for Romney or bad for Romney with a chance of rain.
Mr. Santorum’s bounce has already had considerably more staying power than those of some of his rivals. Newt Gingrich’s surge in the national polls, for instance, peaked just 24 or 48 hours after his victory in South Carolina, whereas Mr. Santorum’s has now persisted for more than a week.Mitt Romney may really be in some trouble this time. His inability to connect just seems to be getting worse and worse.
Nationally, Romney appears to have lost his lead to Santorum:
Rick Santorum, the guy who lost his re-election bid in Pennsylvania by almost 20 points, is beating Mitt Romney.
The numbers at the state level are not good for Romney. He's losing in Michigan. He's losing really, really badly in Ohio, by 18 points according to Rasmussen. He's not only losing badly to Gingrich in Georgia but Santorum is about tied with him for second there so Gingrich + Santorum in Georgia is truly horrific for him. Romney is not up by much in Arizona. Rasmussen has a new poll out there that has him ahead by just 8 and PPP is polling the state now. My guess is they will show a smaller lead for Romney by the end of the weekend.
Meanwhile, various polls have Obama moving ahead of Romney in trial heats nationally. CNN has Obama over 50% and ahead by 5. Democracy Corps has Obama ahead by 4.
The question right now is simply whether things are just bad for Romney or bad for Romney with a chance of rain.
Wednesday, February 15, 2012
Santorum, Joe the Plumber, and Ned Flanders
No, not THE Joe the Plumber. I mean Joe, "a metaphorical" plumber.
We've seen a number of polls out of Michigan that have Santorum ahead of Romney (for now) by anywhere from 2 points to 15 points. This morning, a Quinnipiac poll has Santorum ahead of Romney in Ohio (a Super Tuesday state) by 7. One thing these states have in common is there are a lot of blue-collar men willing to vote in the Republican Primary who are increasingly unhappy with Romney and who are easy pickings for Santorum's message on reviving manufacturing. Nate Silver gets at this in his thoughtful article today suggesting that Santorum may not be all that less electable than Romney. Jonathan Chait makes a similar argument pointing out that
The bottom line is that Romney is winning "around the edges" and Santorum is winning in what Ned Flanders likes to call "the real America." We don't know yet if Santorum's surge will last. But one thing that suggests the Santorum surge can be more lasting than the previous surges is that Santorum's persona and message actually match the electorate he's winning over right now. Rick Perry was never a good match with voters in the midwest. Gingrich's appeal to evangelicals was always tempered by his, ya know, two mistresses and two divorces. Having never held office, Herman Cain was just not a credible national candidate. But Santorum lives the family story values voters talk about. He has the manufacturing message that voters in the Midwest like. He knows how to debate and he speaks the language of downscale voters. Mitt Romney does not.
I really think the only thing holding Santorum back right now is Gingrich. If Gingrich were to leave the race (not likely to happen soon), I think Romney would have a good chance of losing the nomination. As it is, Romney is going to have to muddy himself further by doing to Santorum what he did to Gingrich ... spend millions on negative ads tearing him down.
We've seen a number of polls out of Michigan that have Santorum ahead of Romney (for now) by anywhere from 2 points to 15 points. This morning, a Quinnipiac poll has Santorum ahead of Romney in Ohio (a Super Tuesday state) by 7. One thing these states have in common is there are a lot of blue-collar men willing to vote in the Republican Primary who are increasingly unhappy with Romney and who are easy pickings for Santorum's message on reviving manufacturing. Nate Silver gets at this in his thoughtful article today suggesting that Santorum may not be all that less electable than Romney. Jonathan Chait makes a similar argument pointing out that
I don’t think it’s sunk in quite how poisoned Romney’s image has become among downscale voters. Coverage of Romney’s wealth, corporate history, and partially released tax situation coincided with, and almost certainly caused, a collapse in his support with white voters with income under $50,000.Then there's geography. Look at the states Romney has won: New Hampshire, Florida, Nevada, and Maine (sort of). Look at the states Santorum has won: Iowa, Missouri, Minnesota, Colorado. Put these on a map and you can see that Michigan and Ohio sure seem like Santorum country.
The bottom line is that Romney is winning "around the edges" and Santorum is winning in what Ned Flanders likes to call "the real America." We don't know yet if Santorum's surge will last. But one thing that suggests the Santorum surge can be more lasting than the previous surges is that Santorum's persona and message actually match the electorate he's winning over right now. Rick Perry was never a good match with voters in the midwest. Gingrich's appeal to evangelicals was always tempered by his, ya know, two mistresses and two divorces. Having never held office, Herman Cain was just not a credible national candidate. But Santorum lives the family story values voters talk about. He has the manufacturing message that voters in the Midwest like. He knows how to debate and he speaks the language of downscale voters. Mitt Romney does not.
I really think the only thing holding Santorum back right now is Gingrich. If Gingrich were to leave the race (not likely to happen soon), I think Romney would have a good chance of losing the nomination. As it is, Romney is going to have to muddy himself further by doing to Santorum what he did to Gingrich ... spend millions on negative ads tearing him down.
Monday, February 13, 2012
Hey Michigan, Gingrich is Awful
That's the message Mitt Romney is sending loud and clear with his new tv ad buy. It is a curious move since Santorum seems to be the one surging. I assume the meeting at Romney SuperPAC HQ went something like this:
Political Consultant #1: It appears from the polls we are no longer winning in Michigan.
Political Consultant #2: What have we done in the past when we found we were not winning somewhere?
Political Consultant #3: When we found ourselves down in Iowa and Florida, we ran a ton of negative ads about how awful Newt Gingrich is.
Political Consultant #1: It is agreed then. Let's spend half a million on negative ads targeted at Newt Gingrich.
That's Team Romney ... Rinse, Lather with napalm, Repeat.
Political Consultant #1: It appears from the polls we are no longer winning in Michigan.
Political Consultant #2: What have we done in the past when we found we were not winning somewhere?
Political Consultant #3: When we found ourselves down in Iowa and Florida, we ran a ton of negative ads about how awful Newt Gingrich is.
Political Consultant #1: It is agreed then. Let's spend half a million on negative ads targeted at Newt Gingrich.
That's Team Romney ... Rinse, Lather with napalm, Repeat.
Sunday, February 12, 2012
Nate Silver is Wrong
Bet you didn't think you'd hear me say that.
Last night, Nate said that Romney's victory in Maine does help him. He said this on the basis that it will affect the media narrative (which is all about how Romney is in trouble) and engender momentum. He explains:
Sorry, no. First, the results were announced on a Saturday night which helps bury the story of this runaway victory. Second, the story was easily overshadowed by Whitney Houston's death and the Grammy Awards this weekend. Third, if you think the lead political story in the morning will be Romney's 3-point victory in Maine, try this tweet from PPP on for size:
Yes Nate, losing Maine would have been worse for Romney but when we get to the point that the lack of a disaster is "helping" Romney, he's got problems that the state of Maine just can't fix. Romney needs the narrative to change and Maine won't do it. If he has a great debate or if he wins in Arizona and Michigan in the lead-up to Super Tuesday, that could work. Michigan is starting to look dicey for him. I wonder if anyone will remember how Romney opposed the auto bailout???
UPDATE: PPP has Santorum up by 15 in Michigan, very similar to results nationally. ARG (though I don't trust their polls much) has a poll out this morning that has Santorum ahead by 6. In this case, I'd tend to believe the real numbers are closer to ARG's but it is clear that, at least temporarily, Romney is behind in one of his 43 "home states."
Last night, Nate said that Romney's victory in Maine does help him. He said this on the basis that it will affect the media narrative (which is all about how Romney is in trouble) and engender momentum. He explains:
Yes, Mr. Romney’s margin of victory — 196 votes — was not overwhelming. But the fact is that Mr. Romney can very much use some favorable news of any kind, given how poorly he did last Tuesday.Let's put aside the fact that not all of Maine has yet participated (Nate followed up with a post looking at whether Paul could conceivably win) (and let's put aside that Romney won by 194 votes, not 196). Does Romney's 194-vote victory generate favorable news and create momentum?
Consider the alternative: if Mr. Romney had lost the state by 196 votes, the narrative might have been that Mr. Romney’s campaign was falling apart. That might or might not have been fair to Mr. Romney, but I think it’s possible that’s how it would have been perceived. People like to see patterns in the data, and the pattern would have looked like a bad one for his campaign.
Sorry, no. First, the results were announced on a Saturday night which helps bury the story of this runaway victory. Second, the story was easily overshadowed by Whitney Houston's death and the Grammy Awards this weekend. Third, if you think the lead political story in the morning will be Romney's 3-point victory in Maine, try this tweet from PPP on for size:
Barring some big shift in tonight's calls Santorum will be up by 10-15 on the Michigan pollPPP will be releasing their full MI poll in the morning. Or try this tweet from PPP:
Gingrich dropping out would be worth 7 pts on the margin to Santorum, Mitt better hope he stays in:That's nationally folks. I'll take either of those as newsworthy over Willard's romp through Maine.
Yes Nate, losing Maine would have been worse for Romney but when we get to the point that the lack of a disaster is "helping" Romney, he's got problems that the state of Maine just can't fix. Romney needs the narrative to change and Maine won't do it. If he has a great debate or if he wins in Arizona and Michigan in the lead-up to Super Tuesday, that could work. Michigan is starting to look dicey for him. I wonder if anyone will remember how Romney opposed the auto bailout???
UPDATE: PPP has Santorum up by 15 in Michigan, very similar to results nationally. ARG (though I don't trust their polls much) has a poll out this morning that has Santorum ahead by 6. In this case, I'd tend to believe the real numbers are closer to ARG's but it is clear that, at least temporarily, Romney is behind in one of his 43 "home states."
Saturday, February 11, 2012
Romney Tumbling
PPP's new national poll is out this morning and it is a big scoop of bad news for Romney plus some bad news sauce and a bad news cherry on top. One minor caveat is that PPP does not use cell phones so that might understate Romney's numbers but only by a couple of points if at all. The topline numbers:
Santorum 38
Romney 23
Gingrich 17
Paul 13
Both Paul and Gingrich are closer to Romney than Santorum.
More bad news:
- Romney's favorability is 44/43. Translation: As I said yesterday, a lot of people dislike Mitt Romney. In December, he was at 55/31. Those unfavorable numbers are hard to bring down ... and remember, this is among Republican Primary voters. There are a lot of Democrats who dislike Romney too!
- Santorum is now winning 53-20 among those describing themselves as "very conservative" ... over Gingrich. Romney is down at 15%.
- Santorum is ahead among Tea Party voters 51-24 ... over Gingrich. Romney is at 12%.
- Santorum is ahead among Evangelicals 45-21 ... over Gingrich. Romney is at 18%.
- Among all Gingrich voters, 58% say they would go to Santorum and just 22% would go to Romney while 17% would go to Paul.
Just 48% of voters say their choice is solid so Romney can do his usual routine of getting his checkbook to hold Santorum while his credit cards pound Santorum in the stomach and his Cayman Islands stock portfolio asks Santorum why he's hitting himself.
But the key news item here is that Republican voters are really disliking Romney and it is really quite late for this kind of fluidity. There is something very wrong in the relationship between Romney and the Republican base.
Nate Silver described yesterday why Mitt's delegate lead is NOT like Obama's delegate lead in 2008:
Santorum 38
Romney 23
Gingrich 17
Paul 13
Both Paul and Gingrich are closer to Romney than Santorum.
More bad news:
- Romney's favorability is 44/43. Translation: As I said yesterday, a lot of people dislike Mitt Romney. In December, he was at 55/31. Those unfavorable numbers are hard to bring down ... and remember, this is among Republican Primary voters. There are a lot of Democrats who dislike Romney too!
- Santorum is now winning 53-20 among those describing themselves as "very conservative" ... over Gingrich. Romney is down at 15%.
- Santorum is ahead among Tea Party voters 51-24 ... over Gingrich. Romney is at 12%.
- Santorum is ahead among Evangelicals 45-21 ... over Gingrich. Romney is at 18%.
- Among all Gingrich voters, 58% say they would go to Santorum and just 22% would go to Romney while 17% would go to Paul.
Just 48% of voters say their choice is solid so Romney can do his usual routine of getting his checkbook to hold Santorum while his credit cards pound Santorum in the stomach and his Cayman Islands stock portfolio asks Santorum why he's hitting himself.
But the key news item here is that Republican voters are really disliking Romney and it is really quite late for this kind of fluidity. There is something very wrong in the relationship between Romney and the Republican base.
Nate Silver described yesterday why Mitt's delegate lead is NOT like Obama's delegate lead in 2008:
Mr. Romney’s lead is more like the one held by a driver leading the Indianapolis 500 — after six laps have been completed. It might be argued that he is the better driver or has the better car. But the physical lead itself is not worth very much. All sorts of crazy things happen when there are 33 cars on the track, and one poorly timed pit stop would be enough for him to relinquish his advantage.Further,
More broadly, Republicans have so far declined several opportunities to coalesce around Mr. Romney. They did not do so after he announced his candidacy, nor after Mr. Perry sunk in the polls, nor when Mr. Cain withdrew, nor after Mr. Romney’s apparent win in Iowa and actual win in New Hampshire. And after big wins in Florida and Nevada, he is struggling yet again.While it remains hard to see anyone else winning the nomination, it is becoming easier every day to see how Romney could fail to win the nomination. What a glorious mess.
Friday, February 10, 2012
Romney Ebbing ...
... not Santorum surging.
PPP and others have polls in the field that show Santorum either tied or moving to the lead nationally. To quote PPP's twitter account:
Meanwhile, PPP also reports:
Gingrich 35
Santorum 26
Romney 16
Obviously, Santorum's surge has very little to do with Santorum. I could be a Republican candidate for President right now and, so long as I was enough of an empty vessel for voters to pour their hatred of Obama and dislike of Romney into, I'd be beating Romney too.
The problem for Romney, as I've been saying for a few days now is getting worse because his viable options are narrowing. He can pour tons of money into smashing Santorum with negative ads. But this will hurt Romney as well as Santorum. He can take increasingly conservative positions on issues but that not only harms his general election chances, it also reinforces his image as a man who will say anything to win and who has no core.
We're now at a very weird point in the Republican nomination fight. I don't see how anyone else can win the nomination. But it is becoming increasingly easy to see how Romney might not win. Paging Mitch Daniels.
PPP and others have polls in the field that show Santorum either tied or moving to the lead nationally. To quote PPP's twitter account:
We're going to have our new national GOP poll, showing a pretty healthy Santorum lead, out tomorrow morning
Meanwhile, PPP also reports:
Santorum topping Romney on the first night of our Michigan poll. This may be the biggest surge yet.And a new Rosetta Stone/Landmark Communications Poll (yeah, I never heard of it either) has Georgia at:
Gingrich 35
Santorum 26
Romney 16
Obviously, Santorum's surge has very little to do with Santorum. I could be a Republican candidate for President right now and, so long as I was enough of an empty vessel for voters to pour their hatred of Obama and dislike of Romney into, I'd be beating Romney too.
The problem for Romney, as I've been saying for a few days now is getting worse because his viable options are narrowing. He can pour tons of money into smashing Santorum with negative ads. But this will hurt Romney as well as Santorum. He can take increasingly conservative positions on issues but that not only harms his general election chances, it also reinforces his image as a man who will say anything to win and who has no core.
We're now at a very weird point in the Republican nomination fight. I don't see how anyone else can win the nomination. But it is becoming increasingly easy to see how Romney might not win. Paging Mitch Daniels.
Tuesday, February 7, 2012
We're Number 1 ... or Number 2!!!
Mitt Romney got absolutely shellacked in Missouri, is getting shellacked in Minnesota, and he may even lose Colorado. From TPM:
That's right ... he's "pretty confident" that he'll come in "Number 1 or Number 2." As Andrew Sullivan pointed out tonight, it appears that if he doesn't have a week and millions of dollars of negative ads to pound his opponent with negative ads, he can't seem to win.
We've now had 7 contests (IA, NH, SC, FL, NV, MN, MO) with one more pending. Romney has won 3 with CO pending. Santorum has won 3 ... with CO pending. Rick Santorum is pushing Mitt Romney. Really.
UPDATE: Yeah, Romney lost Colorado too. Something really bad has happened with Mitt Romney tonight. The bottom really dropped out. In talking about the low turnout in Florida, I had said Michael McDonald was actually understating what a major potential problem this was for Romney. Nate Silver points out that this pattern has finally cost Romney ... big-time:
So, we've now had 8 contests, Santorum has won 4 and Romney has won just 3. That's a pretty poor resume for Mr. Inevitable.
Romney thanked all his supporters, including those who have gone out caucusing tonight in Colorado. "The race is too close to call in Colorado at this point, but I'm pretty confident we'll come in Number 1 or Number 2."
That's right ... he's "pretty confident" that he'll come in "Number 1 or Number 2." As Andrew Sullivan pointed out tonight, it appears that if he doesn't have a week and millions of dollars of negative ads to pound his opponent with negative ads, he can't seem to win.
We've now had 7 contests (IA, NH, SC, FL, NV, MN, MO) with one more pending. Romney has won 3 with CO pending. Santorum has won 3 ... with CO pending. Rick Santorum is pushing Mitt Romney. Really.
UPDATE: Yeah, Romney lost Colorado too. Something really bad has happened with Mitt Romney tonight. The bottom really dropped out. In talking about the low turnout in Florida, I had said Michael McDonald was actually understating what a major potential problem this was for Romney. Nate Silver points out that this pattern has finally cost Romney ... big-time:
We have repeatedly noted the pattern in which Mr. Romney's stronger states and counties have been associated with lower Republican turnout.
So far, it was not clear that this had lost Mr. Romney a state -- save perhaps Iowa, when virtually anything might have altered the result.
But in Colorado, where the demographics were reasonably favorable to Mr. Romney -- he won 60 percent of the vote there in 2008 -- it may have made the difference. Mr. Romney's stronger areas in the state were associated with turnout declines of about 20 percent. But turnout was steady or slightly up in places where Rick Santorum did well.
Among other problems for Mr. Romney, this suggests that suggests that the caucus states could be problematic rather than advantageous to Mr. Romney, with his superior organization being outmatched by very conservative voters who have low levels of enthusiasm for him.
So, we've now had 8 contests, Santorum has won 4 and Romney has won just 3. That's a pretty poor resume for Mr. Inevitable.
Minnesota, Missouri, Colorado
Well, I got one thing right last week when I said Santorum is the biggest threat to Romney. Santorum has a really good shot to win two of tonight's contests (Minnesota and Missouri) and he is even in good position to come in second in Colorado.
My reasoning was only slightly off. I had said that Santorum dropping out would boost Gingrich. It seems Santorum is a threat to beat Romney in key places. But the reasoning is not as far off as you might think. Santorum doesn't just have a chance to win in Missouri ... he could get close to 50%. This matters because my logic had been that there are some states where Santorum + Gingrich > Romney. Missouri provides a real test of this proposition because Gingrich is not on the ballot. Even with Paul on the ballot, Santorum is inching towards 50% (he got 45% in the PPP poll).
Meanwhile, Romney is downplaying the importance of tonight's contests. Like Iowa and South Carolina, they don't really matter apparently. My favorite part of this memo is their invoking the fact that John McCain lost 19 contests in 2008 so we're really doing just fine. What ever happened with that President McCain anyway?
My reasoning was only slightly off. I had said that Santorum dropping out would boost Gingrich. It seems Santorum is a threat to beat Romney in key places. But the reasoning is not as far off as you might think. Santorum doesn't just have a chance to win in Missouri ... he could get close to 50%. This matters because my logic had been that there are some states where Santorum + Gingrich > Romney. Missouri provides a real test of this proposition because Gingrich is not on the ballot. Even with Paul on the ballot, Santorum is inching towards 50% (he got 45% in the PPP poll).
Meanwhile, Romney is downplaying the importance of tonight's contests. Like Iowa and South Carolina, they don't really matter apparently. My favorite part of this memo is their invoking the fact that John McCain lost 19 contests in 2008 so we're really doing just fine. What ever happened with that President McCain anyway?
Sunday, January 29, 2012
Santorum is the Biggest Threat to Romney
Are you very conservative? If you are, you don't like Mitt Romney. In Florida, where Romney has outspent Gingrich by a 5 to 1 margin, Willard is still losing to Gingrich by 7 among the "very conservative" and Romney is losing by 7 among "tea partiers." Indeed, it is only among moderates that Romney beats Gingrich. Among everyone who self-identifies as a conservative, Gingrich is effectively tied with Romney.
These numbers come from the latest PPP poll. Among the "very conservative," it is Gingrich 36, Romney 29, and Santorum 24. And this is the key to Romney's big vulnerability going forward. Romney can continue to outspend Gingrich and win states. But that's not bringing very conservative voters to his side. So here's the nightmare scenario for Romney: What happens if Santorum drops out? Where do those voters go? Let me posit this. If you're supporting Rick Santorum, you're really committed to some crazy. You like some crazy. Not just the run-of-the-mill "I want to build a border fence with 3 moats" kind of crazy. I'm talking "Let's outlaw contraceptives" crazy. If that's your brand of crazy, you're not getting on board the yacht with Thurston Howell just yet. You're getting on board a space rocket and headed to that moon base Newton Leroy is planning.
The media seems very focused on the storyline that Romney's winning Florida and pulling away and oh boy, this is going to be a blowout, etc.! Let's say all that happens. Mitt may face a nightmare at that moment. Santorum could leave the race. And then we'll see whether Mitt can get his party's base behind him. I'm not so sure.
These numbers come from the latest PPP poll. Among the "very conservative," it is Gingrich 36, Romney 29, and Santorum 24. And this is the key to Romney's big vulnerability going forward. Romney can continue to outspend Gingrich and win states. But that's not bringing very conservative voters to his side. So here's the nightmare scenario for Romney: What happens if Santorum drops out? Where do those voters go? Let me posit this. If you're supporting Rick Santorum, you're really committed to some crazy. You like some crazy. Not just the run-of-the-mill "I want to build a border fence with 3 moats" kind of crazy. I'm talking "Let's outlaw contraceptives" crazy. If that's your brand of crazy, you're not getting on board the yacht with Thurston Howell just yet. You're getting on board a space rocket and headed to that moon base Newton Leroy is planning.
The media seems very focused on the storyline that Romney's winning Florida and pulling away and oh boy, this is going to be a blowout, etc.! Let's say all that happens. Mitt may face a nightmare at that moment. Santorum could leave the race. And then we'll see whether Mitt can get his party's base behind him. I'm not so sure.
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