Saturday, February 11, 2012

Romney Tumbling

PPP's new national poll is out this morning and it is a big scoop of bad news for Romney plus some bad news sauce and a bad news cherry on top. One minor caveat is that PPP does not use cell phones so that might understate Romney's numbers but only by a couple of points if at all. The topline numbers:

Santorum 38
Romney 23
Gingrich 17
Paul 13

Both Paul and Gingrich are closer to Romney than Santorum.

More bad news:

- Romney's favorability is 44/43. Translation: As I said yesterday, a lot of people dislike Mitt Romney. In December, he was at 55/31. Those unfavorable numbers are hard to bring down ... and remember, this is among Republican Primary voters. There are a lot of Democrats who dislike Romney too!

- Santorum is now winning 53-20 among those describing themselves as "very conservative" ... over Gingrich. Romney is down at 15%.

- Santorum is ahead among Tea Party voters 51-24 ... over Gingrich. Romney is at 12%.

- Santorum is ahead among Evangelicals 45-21 ... over Gingrich. Romney is at 18%.

- Among all Gingrich voters, 58% say they would go to Santorum and just 22% would go to Romney while 17% would go to Paul.

Just 48% of voters say their choice is solid so Romney can do his usual routine of getting his checkbook to hold Santorum while his credit cards pound Santorum in the stomach and his Cayman Islands stock portfolio asks Santorum why he's hitting himself.

But the key news item here is that Republican voters are really disliking Romney and it is really quite late for this kind of fluidity. There is something very wrong in the relationship between Romney and the Republican base.

Nate Silver described yesterday why Mitt's delegate lead is NOT like Obama's delegate lead in 2008:
Mr. Romney’s lead is more like the one held by a driver leading the Indianapolis 500 — after six laps have been completed. It might be argued that he is the better driver or has the better car. But the physical lead itself is not worth very much. All sorts of crazy things happen when there are 33 cars on the track, and one poorly timed pit stop would be enough for him to relinquish his advantage.
More broadly, Republicans have so far declined several opportunities to coalesce around Mr. Romney. They did not do so after he announced his candidacy, nor after Mr. Perry sunk in the polls, nor when Mr. Cain withdrew, nor after Mr. Romney’s apparent win in Iowa and actual win in New Hampshire. And after big wins in Florida and Nevada, he is struggling yet again.
While it remains hard to see anyone else winning the nomination, it is becoming easier every day to see how Romney could fail to win the nomination. What a glorious mess.

1 comment:

Russ deForest said...

The GOP has spent the last three years building a base that isn't capable of nominating a palatable general election candidate.

Santorum's rise is at least entertaining. How many 2 term incumbent Senators have their been who've lost their seats by double digit margins and taken that as a signal to seek higher office?