Nate Silver is Wrong

Bet you didn't think you'd hear me say that.

Last night, Nate said that Romney's victory in Maine does help him. He said this on the basis that it will affect the media narrative (which is all about how Romney is in trouble) and engender momentum. He explains:

Yes, Mr. Romney’s margin of victory — 196 votes — was not overwhelming. But the fact is that Mr. Romney can very much use some favorable news of any kind, given how poorly he did last Tuesday.

Consider the alternative: if Mr. Romney had lost the state by 196 votes, the narrative might have been that Mr. Romney’s campaign was falling apart. That might or might not have been fair to Mr. Romney, but I think it’s possible that’s how it would have been perceived. People like to see patterns in the data, and the pattern would have looked like a bad one for his campaign.

Let's put aside the fact that not all of Maine has yet participated (Nate followed up with a post looking at whether Paul could conceivably win) (and let's put aside that Romney won by 194 votes, not 196). Does Romney's 194-vote victory generate favorable news and create momentum?

Sorry, no. First, the results were announced on a Saturday night which helps bury the story of this runaway victory. Second, the story was easily overshadowed by Whitney Houston's death and the Grammy Awards this weekend. Third, if you think the lead political story in the morning will be Romney's 3-point victory in Maine, try this tweet from PPP on for size:

Barring some big shift in tonight's calls Santorum will be up by 10-15 on the Michigan poll

PPP will be releasing their full MI poll in the morning. Or try this tweet from PPP:

Gingrich dropping out would be worth 7 pts on the margin to Santorum, Mitt better hope he stays in:

That's nationally folks. I'll take either of those as newsworthy over Willard's romp through Maine.

Yes Nate, losing Maine would have been worse for Romney but when we get to the point that the lack of a disaster is "helping" Romney, he's got problems that the state of Maine just can't fix. Romney needs the narrative to change and Maine won't do it. If he has a great debate or if he wins in Arizona and Michigan in the lead-up to Super Tuesday, that could work. Michigan is starting to look dicey for him. I wonder if anyone will remember how Romney opposed the auto bailout???



UPDATE: PPP has Santorum up by 15 in Michigan, very similar to results nationally. ARG (though I don't trust their polls much) has a poll out this morning that has Santorum ahead by 6. In this case, I'd tend to believe the real numbers are closer to ARG's but it is clear that, at least temporarily, Romney is behind in one of his 43 "home states."

Romney Tumbling

PPP's new national poll is out this morning and it is a big scoop of bad news for Romney plus some bad news sauce and a bad news cherry on top. One minor caveat is that PPP does not use cell phones so that might understate Romney's numbers but only by a couple of points if at all. The topline numbers:

Santorum 38
Romney 23
Gingrich 17
Paul 13

Both Paul and Gingrich are closer to Romney than Santorum.

More bad news:

- Romney's favorability is 44/43. Translation: As I said yesterday, a lot of people dislike Mitt Romney. In December, he was at 55/31. Those unfavorable numbers are hard to bring down ... and remember, this is among Republican Primary voters. There are a lot of Democrats who dislike Romney too!

- Santorum is now winning 53-20 among those describing themselves as "very conservative" ... over Gingrich. Romney is down at 15%.

- Santorum is ahead among Tea Party voters 51-24 ... over Gingrich. Romney is at 12%.

- Santorum is ahead among Evangelicals 45-21 ... over Gingrich. Romney is at 18%.

- Among all Gingrich voters, 58% say they would go to Santorum and just 22% would go to Romney while 17% would go to Paul.

Just 48% of voters say their choice is solid so Romney can do his usual routine of getting his checkbook to hold Santorum while his credit cards pound Santorum in the stomach and his Cayman Islands stock portfolio asks Santorum why he's hitting himself.

But the key news item here is that Republican voters are really disliking Romney and it is really quite late for this kind of fluidity. There is something very wrong in the relationship between Romney and the Republican base.

Nate Silver described yesterday why Mitt's delegate lead is NOT like Obama's delegate lead in 2008:

Mr. Romney’s lead is more like the one held by a driver leading the Indianapolis 500 — after six laps have been completed. It might be argued that he is the better driver or has the better car. But the physical lead itself is not worth very much. All sorts of crazy things happen when there are 33 cars on the track, and one poorly timed pit stop would be enough for him to relinquish his advantage.

Further,

More broadly, Republicans have so far declined several opportunities to coalesce around Mr. Romney. They did not do so after he announced his candidacy, nor after Mr. Perry sunk in the polls, nor when Mr. Cain withdrew, nor after Mr. Romney’s apparent win in Iowa and actual win in New Hampshire. And after big wins in Florida and Nevada, he is struggling yet again.

While it remains hard to see anyone else winning the nomination, it is becoming easier every day to see how Romney could fail to win the nomination. What a glorious mess.

We're Number 1 ... or Number 2!!!

Mitt Romney got absolutely shellacked in Missouri, is getting shellacked in Minnesota, and he may even lose Colorado. From TPM:

Romney thanked all his supporters, including those who have gone out caucusing tonight in Colorado. "The race is too close to call in Colorado at this point, but I'm pretty confident we'll come in Number 1 or Number 2."

That's right ... he's "pretty confident" that he'll come in "Number 1 or Number 2." As Andrew Sullivan pointed out tonight, it appears that if he doesn't have a week and millions of dollars of negative ads to pound his opponent with negative ads, he can't seem to win.

We've now had 7 contests (IA, NH, SC, FL, NV, MN, MO) with one more pending. Romney has won 3 with CO pending. Santorum has won 3 ... with CO pending. Rick Santorum is pushing Mitt Romney. Really.

UPDATE: Yeah, Romney lost Colorado too. Something really bad has happened with Mitt Romney tonight. The bottom really dropped out. In talking about the low turnout in Florida, I had said Michael McDonald was actually understating what a major potential problem this was for Romney. Nate Silver points out that this pattern has finally cost Romney ... big-time:

We have repeatedly noted the pattern in which Mr. Romney's stronger states and counties have been associated with lower Republican turnout.

So far, it was not clear that this had lost Mr. Romney a state -- save perhaps Iowa, when virtually anything might have altered the result.

But in Colorado, where the demographics were reasonably favorable to Mr. Romney -- he won 60 percent of the vote there in 2008 -- it may have made the difference. Mr. Romney's stronger areas in the state were associated with turnout declines of about 20 percent. But turnout was steady or slightly up in places where Rick Santorum did well.

Among other problems for Mr. Romney, this suggests that suggests that the caucus states could be problematic rather than advantageous to Mr. Romney, with his superior organization being outmatched by very conservative voters who have low levels of enthusiasm for him.

So, we've now had 8 contests, Santorum has won 4 and Romney has won just 3. That's a pretty poor resume for Mr. Inevitable.