We Got Beat

Most of us received the fundraising email from the Obama campaign this morning with the subject line "We got beat." The email explains that the Romney campaign combined with the RNC outraised the Obama campaign combined with the DNC $78 million to $60 million in the month of May. The story has also been running on the 24 hour news networks as a big deal and some further indication that the Obama campaign is in some kind of death spiral. They don't say those words but that is the feeling they clearly try to evoke (before they run the "comeback kid" stories like clockwork next week).

All this has a lot of people on the left quite spun up. My own particular bellwether (my dad) called me a couple of days ago upset about the Wisconsin recall and the fact that Walker outspent his opposition by 8 to 1 and ... this means Obama is going to be outspent the same way and come up just short.

Look, I think people should give money to the Obama campaign and to Democratic House and Senate campaigns as much as they can. It does help. But I'll also tell you what I told my dad. Obama could lose but he's not going to lose because of money. I do think that Obama plus DNC plus left-leaning superPACs will ultimately have less money than Romney plus RNC plus right-leaning superPACs. But you should know a few things about that:

1) Right now, the left has more money for the presidential race.

2) Money means less in presidential races than all other contests. So much is spent and so much of it is a wash.

3) Even if I'm right that Team Obama will be outspent overall by Team Romney, it is not going to be some geometric difference.

Steve Kornacki has a great piece out about this today that you should read if you don't believe me.

The bottom line is that Obama may win or lose but fundraising is not going to make the difference. But if you want to be extra-sure, stop wringing your hands and send Obama $100.

Hey Michigan, Gingrich is Awful

That's the message Mitt Romney is sending loud and clear with his new tv ad buy. It is a curious move since Santorum seems to be the one surging. I assume the meeting at Romney SuperPAC HQ went something like this:

Political Consultant #1: It appears from the polls we are no longer winning in Michigan.
Political Consultant #2: What have we done in the past when we found we were not winning somewhere?
Political Consultant #3: When we found ourselves down in Iowa and Florida, we ran a ton of negative ads about how awful Newt Gingrich is.
Political Consultant #1: It is agreed then. Let's spend half a million on negative ads targeted at Newt Gingrich.

That's Team Romney ... Rinse, Lather with napalm, Repeat.