Tuesday, November 4, 2008

Polling Update

There are some new polls this morning but they don't really tell us anything new. Obama is poised for a win IF the polls are right. But there is that big "if."

Nate Silver's final estimate has McCain's probability of winning at 1.1%.

Exit polls are useless ... particularly the early leaked release ... particularly this year. If you want to know why, read Nate Silver's well-done piece on the subject. That said, I would say that (for some of the reasons outlined by Nate) we would expect to see Obama's margin OVER-stated in the early exit polls. It would worry me if he were not winning big, big, big in the exit polls. I worry about a lot of things though.

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