Monday, November 3, 2008

Late Polls

The chief election officer of Hawaii confirmed that Madelyn Dunham voted by absentee ballot and her vote will count. So, in the official tally, Obama 1, McCain 0. Very cool.

Not much variance in the final national polls out this afternoon:

51-42 CBS (Tracker)
53-46 Ipsos (Full)
53-44 ABC/WP (Tracker)

And not really much good news for McCain in the state polls:

Alaska (Hays) - McCain +3 (are they kidding?)
Colorado (Rasmussen) - Obama +4
Florida (Datamar) - McCain +1
Florida (Rasmussen) - McCain +1
Florida (Strategic Vision) - Obama +2
Florida (SurveyUSA) - Obama +3
Georgia (Insider Advantage) - McCain +1
Georgia (Strategic Vision) - McCain +4
Indiana (PPP) - Obama +1
Missouri (PPP) - Tied
Missouri (Rasmussen) - Tied
Nevada (PPP) - Obama +4
New Jersey (Rasmussen) - Obama +15
North Carolina (SurveyUSA) - McCain +1
North Carolina (Rasmussen) - McCain +1
Ohio (Strategic Vision) - McCain +2
Ohio (Rasmussen) - Tied
Pennsylvania (Strategic Vision) - Obama +7
Pennsylvania (SurveyUSA) - Obama +9
Virginia (Rasmussen) - Obama +4
Washington (Strategic Vision) - Obama +15
Washington (SurveyUSA) - Obama +16
Wisconsin (Strategic Vision) - Obama +13

There's a lot of red in that list but here's the problem for John McCain. Even if we give him every state in which ANY pollster gives him a lead plus every state in which ANY pollster has him tied AND let's give him Indiana ... he STILL loses. Obama would still win by winning all the Kerry states (including Pennsylvania - see SurveyUSA poll in PA - and New Hampshire) plus Iowa, New Mexico, Virginia, Colorado, and Nevada.

Then there's that SurveyUSA poll in Florida. Barack Obama has many, many paths to victory without Florida but Obama simply cannot lose if he wins Florida. Also, Florida holds a special place in the hearts of most Democrats who all believe we were robbed in 2000. I have said many times I have more faith in SurveyUSA's read at the state level than any other pollster. No pollster is perfect or infallible but they are the gold standard to me. The 3-point lead they give Obama is the least of the good news for Obama. The internals are DEADLY. SurveyUSA estimates that 58% of likely voters have already voted. And they estimate that Barack Obama won 58-40 among these voters. As in some other states, the poll has McCain winning 16% of the African-American vote. He will not.

To put it simply, there is only one path to victory for John McCain. ALL the pollsters have to be wrong and by quite a bit. Could this happen? Yes. Will it happen? Nate Silver estimates the probability of it happening is approximately 1.9%. That's where we are.

Also, Karl Rove predicts Obama will win in a blowout. Really.

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