Sunday, November 2, 2008

Morning Polls

One more day! One more day!

If Larry David were looking at this polling he would say this: "Pretty, pretty, pretty, pretty good!"

The Gallup tracker (expanded) moves from Obama +9 to Obama +11 and the traditional model moves from Obama +8 to Obama +11 and BOTH have Obama up 53-42. Gallup's final full national poll has Obama winning 55-44. Wow! Rasmussen moves from Obama +5 to Obama +6 and he's at 52%. Hotline holds steady at Obama +5 and Obama is at 51%. R2000 moves from Obama +7 to Obama +6 and Obama is at 51%.

NBC/WSJ has a new poll out that has the virtue of only including interviews from Sunday (Saturday and particularly Friday polls are problematic as weekend nights and Friday was Halloween). The poll has Obama up by 8 nationally and at 51%. Marist has a full national poll out that has Obama up by 9. Democracy Corps has it at Obama +7. Fox News (recall their silly poll a week ago?) has Obama up by 7.

Here are all the national polls listed below (Obama leads all and his number is listed first):

51-43 - NBC/WSJ (Full)
51-44 - Democracy Corps (Full)
53-44 - Marist (Full)
50-43 - Fox News (Full)
55-44 - Gallup (Full)
53-42 - Gallup (Expanded Tracker)
53-42 - Gallup (Traditional Tracker)
52-46 - Rasmussen (Tracker)
51-46 - Hotline (Tracker)
51-45 - R2000 (Tracker)

Folks, there just isn't a lot of disagreement here. Obama is at 50% or over in every national poll out there. Even Zogby and GWU/Battleground (which I don't include in my discussions) have it the same.

Now, let's turn to the state polling. The short version is that Nate Silver has McCain's probability of winning the election back down to 3.7%:

Florida (PPP) - Obama +2
Florida (Quinnipiac) - Obama +2
Georgia (PPP) - McCain +2
Georgia (SurveyUSA) - McCain +7
Minnesota (SurveyUSA) - Obama +3
Missouri (SurveyUSA) - Tied
Montana (PPP) - Obama +1
North Carolina (PPP) - Obama +1
Ohio (PPP) - Obama +2
Ohio (Quinnipiac) - Obama +7
Ohio (SurveyUSA) - Obama +2
Ohio (Univ. of Cincinnati) - Obama +6
Pennsylvania (Quinnipiac) - Obama +10

The Minnesota SUSA poll would bother me if I believed it was accurate. SUSA had a wacky poll in Minnesota a few weeks ago that I wrote about here and this is their next poll in the state. Methinks something strange is afoot in their Minnesota sampling as all the other pollsters have the spread in Minnesota much greater and, more importantly, neither campaign seems to think the state is in play. If Obama's lead was really 3 points, McCain would have been there sometime in the last couple of weeks.

The Ohio PPP poll is close but Obama is at 50% in the poll. SurveyUSA also has it at 2 (and I sure do trust them in states that don't end in "sota.") The numbers from Quinnipiac are not all that different from what SUSA is saying when you factor in the slight Democratic lean from Quinnipiac.

That Georgia PPP poll means Obama is for real in Georgia. Should be a fun state to watch tomorrow night. One of the things I love most about SurveyUSA is they make their internals available in an easy way. And they have the African-American proportion of the electorate at 26%. My prediction is that this number is wrong and underestimates African-American turnout. As I said, we'll see tomorrow. Montana is interesting and I am starting to think Obama might win there. Remember that Ron Paul is on the ballot in Montana and he is likely to draw some votes away from McCain there.

One more day!!! Breathe in, Breathe out.

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