Saturday, November 1, 2008

Late Polls

ABC/WP tracker shows no movement at Obama +9 (53-44). CBS/NYTimes has a new full poll out showing Obama expanding his lead a little bit (2 points) from where it was a few days ago. They have it at Obama +13 (54-41). Some believe CBS/NYTimes is some kind of outlier. I don't think that's absolutely right. I note that their estimate of Obama's number is not far from where those tracking polls had it this morning. The disagreement is over McCain's numbers and I explained that in this morning's post. What matters most at this point though is the trend, rather than the absolute numbers. McCain needs a rapid close and, if anything, the national numbers seem to be moving away from him.

Some state polling:

Arkansas (ARG) - McCain +7
California (SurveyUSA) - Obama +24
Florida (ARG) - Obama +4
Florida (Datamar) - Tied
Florida (Mason Dixon) - Obama +2
Indiana (ARG) - Tied
New Hampshire (UNH) - Obama +11
Pennsylvania (ARG) - Obama +6
South Dakota (Rasmussen) - McCain +9

Mason Dixon had McCain ahead by 2 a week ago. So this is a good poll from a pollster who has a Republican lean. But Datamar had Obama up by 4 last week. I included ARG polls even though I don't think much of their state-level polling. That said, all four of their polls here seem fairly reasonable. Nothing else to see here.

Update: McCain moves from 2.8% to 3.8% chance of winning the election in Nate Silver's model, largely on the gains McCain appears to have made in Pennsylvania. PANIC!!! (just kidding)

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