Big Bird

Sure, Obama didn't do well in the debate. But he's also pretty darn good at finding ways to make lemonade out of the lemons ...



Put that together with the good jobs report and I think the Romney bump is going to be small.

The Jobs Report and the Post-Debate Environment

I moderated a panel on the election last night with Chris Kofinis and Greg Strimple, two nationally prominent political consultants. Kofinis is a Democrat and Strimple is a Republican. One of the striking things about the discussion was how much they agreed on the debate and the post-debate environment. They both felt the debate was a very, very bad night for the President and that Romney was now back in the game after his campaign had been floundering for 60-90 days. I asked them both where the polls would be by early next week. Neither gave a specific number but Kofinis said the race would "tighten" and Strimple seemed to say Romney would get an even bigger boost and that Romney would be tied or even could lead.

This morning, Rasmussen released their daily tracking poll which includes one night of post-debate numbers. The topline numbers were unchanged but Rasmussen did note

The single night of polling conducted after the debate did show some improvement for Romney, but it remains to be seen whether that will continue or if it was merely statistical noise.

In the immediate aftermath of the debate, I said I thought Romney would pick up 1 to 2 points. I still think that's about right.

Then, today's jobs report came out. The economy added 114,000 jobs in September and the BLS revised upward the number of jobs the economy added in July and August. Perhaps most importantly from a political perspective, the unemployment rate dropped below 8% to 7.8% ... exactly where the unemployment rate was in January 2009 when President Obama was inaugurated. So what effect will this have on the race?

First, it helps Obama change the subject from his poor debate performance. The biggest problem with the debate performance was the echo chamber of the media talking about it. That discussion will now be more muted in the media or, at the very least, the media will be talking about the question of "does the jobs report change the subject?" That's what we call a self-fulfilling prophecy folks. Second, the jobs report strengthens the President's argument in the next debate in response to the most important question in the campaign: Are you better off than you were four years ago?

Not only can the President say, "We inherited a disaster and we've now turned the corner." Much of the coverage of the last 30 days has focused on the President's rise in the polls being related to missteps by Governor Romney. What has been under-emphasized in the coverage has been the rise in consumer confidence. One good measure of this is Gallup's Economic Confidence Index.

Today's news is going to continue the trend we see there. And that is good for Obama.

Let me add this one last point: The next debate will be a town hall format and there WILL BE a question where a person stands up and says they are unemployed and want to know "what each of you will do specifically to help people like me." Count on that question. The President should answer the question with some specific things he's doing and planning to do to help. But he should then also pivot to say, "We inherited a mess created by the exact same policies that Governor Romney wants to double down on. And now we've tried it my way for four years and the result has been 5,000,000 private sector jobs added to the economy and we've brought unemployment back down to where it was when they left me with this mess. We shouldn't go back, we should keep going forward."

That's the job the President has for the next debate and this jobs report makes it easier to make that argument.

Post-Debate Panic Among Democrats

Most of my Democratic friends (which is most of my friends) are in full freak-out mode about Obama's debate performance. Some of these people value my opinion on these things. Some of them seek out my opinion not because they believe it but because they figure I'll give them the pro-Obama spin and they just want to be comforted. Still others don't ask me for my opinion because they think I'm an apologist for everything Obama's ever done. Whether you want my opinion or not, here it is:

Settle down people, settle down. Read what John Sides has to say. Or read what Sam Wang has to say.

These are smart people. Very ... professorial. When did THAT become a bad word???

Look, the only way Romney can gain ground is if he wins over some undecided voters or if he wins over some voters "leaning" towards Obama who are persuaded to move. There are VERY few undecided voters out there. If half of them made up their minds tonight (not likely) and those people break for Romney 5 to 1 (not likely) ... he picks up a net of about a point to a point and a half. How many of those "leaning" towards Obama changed their mind? Not a lot. Could Romney gain 2 points? It's possible but 1 point is a better bet.

What Should Romney Do?

Romney has edged a smidge higher heading into the debate. He's still behind by more than he was before the conventions. And, despite what you hear from Republicans who think the polls are skewed, Romney was already behind before the conventions. Here's the full picture:



The last time Romney led in ANY national poll was back in mid-September in a Rasmussen poll. The last non-Rasmussen national poll where Romney led was in early September (ARG). Romney hasn't been even in the rolling average of polls since May, while he was enjoying his post-nomination "glow."

The structure of the race has been remarkably stable. The odds are that the structure of the race does not change after tonight.

So, how would I advise Romney were I to advise him? Some argue that the description of the data above is what is leading Romney's advisors to tell him to "go big or go home." They are supposedly prepping him with "zingers" and generally, the media is arguing this is Romney's "last, best chance." This is all wrong.

My advice to Romney would flow from this simple, yet harsh, observation. Mitt, the more people see of you, the less they like you. Romney's best bet is to fade into the background and let the election be about Obama. People are dissatisfied with the direction of the country and with Washington in general. Let the campaign be about that. What this means for the debate is that Romney would be smart to be who he is: boring, non-memorable, vague on policy details, etc.

This is the opposite of what we're seeing Romney's advisors say he'll do. But I think it is right. Now, don't get me wrong. This strategy does not guarantee a Romney win by any means. It is simply the best of the bad options in front of Romney right now. He needs to get out of his own way and let Obama sink or swim on the perceptions voters have of him and the direction of the country.

I'll send you a bill in the mail Mitt.

With Regard to Zingers

The Romney camp's big plan for Wednesday night's debate is to have a lot of different "zingers" ready to go that Mitt Romney can deploy to throw the President off-balance and, ultimately, fundamentally re-make the race.

This is what they told the New York Times. And this tells you everything you need to know about the Romney brain-trust. Here's some problems with the plan:

1) Romney is not good at zingers. If you can name one zinger Romney has used in his political career that was memorable enough to affect any race, I'd like to know what it is. Indeed, the fact that the Romney camp is referring to them as "zingers" as opposed to "great points" or "strong arguments" tells you what year they're living in. Imagine you needled your friend with some particularly good line and someone said, "Wow, great zinger!" You'd have no choice but to say, "Zinger? Really?" Romney is a character from 1950 and his campaign reflects the man.

2) Zingers don't win presidential elections. If you think about the most famous zingers is presidential/vice-presidential debate politics, you'll see what I mean. Reagan's, "there you you go again" did not change that race. Reagan's great joke about Walter Mondale's "youth and inexperience" did not change the election. Lloyd Bentsen's "you're no Jack Kennedy" did not change the race. George H.W. Bush looking at his watch (not really a zinger but a widely-discussed debate moment) didn't actually affect the race. Did Al Gore's sighing affect the race? No, there's no evidence it did. John McCain's use of "Joe the Plumber" was much-discussed ... but it had no effect.

3) The whole idea of a zinger is that it took everyone by surprise. You know ... as in ... ZING!!! If you tell the New York Times ahead of time, the zinger doesn't zing. It falls flat. Moreover, you've now raised expectations. Everyone is expecting and anticipating the well-rehearsed line. It can't possibly live up to expectations. There is now considerable danger that the zinger will fall flat. Finally, you've yet again allowed Obama to play the role of adult in the room. And, predictably, the Obama campaign is talking about how they aren't going to have any zingers and they are going to talk about their ideas. Oy.

All of this points to a campaign that is just not reading the public mood properly. As Ezra Klein points out, the Romney campaign still believes they just need to point out that the economy is very bad and that will be enough to win.

The idea that this election can be reshaped by a zinger speaks to a deeper problem in the Romney campaign’s fundamental view of the race. As they see it, Obama’s record is an obvious disaster and their job entails little more than pointing that out over and over again. That the polls haven’t seemed responsive to this theory hasn’t dissuaded them.

This thinking is wrong. And it is one of the reasons Romney is in such a deep hole right now.

Ohio

I've said it over and over and over, Mitt Romney just can't win without Ohio. And Ohio is getting worse and worse for him. Here's what Ohio looks like:



And this doesn't include today's Columbus Dispatch poll that has Obama ahead by 9. The last 3 polls have Obama ahead by 9, 10, and 8 respectively. Not to put too fine a point on it but Obama only needs to win Ohio by 1 ... vote.

Romney's situation is more dire than many believe. Yes, this week's debate can start turning things around for him. But that needs to be the start. He needs something bigger at this point in my view.

UPDATE: A PPP poll has Obama up by 4. Want to know how bad Romney's situation is? It is so bad that a credible poll showing Romney down by just 4 is "good news." I should say though there are some very funky things inside this poll. They have Obama doing better among men (leading 50-43) than among women (48-46). I can assure that's not right. Specifically, Obama is almost definitely doing better among women. It is also likely he's not doing that well among men. To put that another way, if Obama is really leading 50-43 among men in Ohio, Mitt Romney is done, done, done.

The YouTube ...

... is not Romney's friend either ...

It turns out that even "Invisible Obama" (Clint Eastwood and his empty chair) has been viewed twice as much as Mitt and Ann Romney's speeches combined.

Now, most of the reason for this is just the demographics of the coalitions supporting the two candidates. Barack Obama is supported by the young. Mitt Romney is supported (nominally) by the old. So people who are more likely to cruise around on YouTube looking for videos of a monkey washing a cat are younger and less likely to support Mitt Romney. They don't want to see Mitt Romney's convention speech but they might want to see where Mitt Romney said bad things about the 47%.

But there's another part to this story. Old people use YouTube less but they're not dead and they're not luddites. They also aren't watching Mitt Romney's convention speech because ... it was not very interesting or even watchable. It was boring.

As I mentioned at the time, it was a big missed opportunity.

Now, as we approach the first presidential debate, Mitt Romney is under increasing pressure to do something dramatic to change the race. He needs to rattle a guy whose whole public persona is all about being cool. Indeed, people complain that Obama doesn't get angry enough, he's too calm and aloof. The odds that he'll fly off the handle and make a mistake is really quite small.

Mitt's in a tricky box.

Devastating Ad

You've probably seen it by now but this is a devastating ad being run by the President against Mitt Romney:



There's many things going on in this ad that make it very tough. Putting sympathetic faces on the 47% hurts. The music is haunting. Romney's own voice is as unfeeling and inhuman as ever.

But Jonathan Chait nails what is soooo devastating about the ad:

It’s the sound of silverware clinking on china in the background as Romney speaks. That detail contrasts the atmosphere Romney inhabits with the one in which most Americans live. You can tell, even though you’re not seeing this, that the remarks are being made to people enjoying a formal dinner.

Snakes on a Plane

Samuel L. Jackson's new mantra is almost as good ...

Scarborough: "Oh Sweet Jesus"

His reaction to Mitt Romney on the campaign trail. Priceless ...