Will the Second Debate Affect the Polls?

It depends on how you understand how the first debate affected the polls. I argued here that the effect of the first debate was to energize Republican voters and to depress Democratic voters. As post-debate polls rolled in, like the Pew poll that had Romney ahead by 4, we saw more Republicans and fewer Democrats identified as likely voters.

One thing that is not happening as a result of last night's debate is some big swing among "undecided" voters. There just aren't very many undecided voters and, if you're undecided at this point, you're a low-information voter who is not paying any attention at all to these debates.

So, what did last night's debate do for Republican and Democratic voters? Republicans who were already energized about Romney will remain so. Romney made mistakes last night but he does a very good job of delivering Republican talking points related to the question asked. Republican viewers came away satisfied with that. The question is whether the debate and, more importantly, the day-after media discussion will energize previously-depressed Democrats/Obama supporters.

My sense is that the debate will do that at least to some extent. The President was feisty, was hitting the key themes Democrats want to hear about, and hit Romney in three ways that Democrats had been worried about:

1) The President reminded everyone of his commander-in-chiefyness with the Libya exchange
2) The President helped fire up women on a number of answers (Ledbetter Act, contraception/abortion, Romney's silly binders answer)
3) The President emphasized over and over that Romney is going to cut taxes for the most wealthy, will favor the most wealthy, and finished the debate by finally raising the 47% issue and, because it was the last response, Romney couldn't bat it down.

How much will this move the polls? Very, very little in my view. But, to the extent it has an effect, Obama will gain a little ground.

The YouTube ...

... is not Romney's friend either ...

It turns out that even "Invisible Obama" (Clint Eastwood and his empty chair) has been viewed twice as much as Mitt and Ann Romney's speeches combined.

Now, most of the reason for this is just the demographics of the coalitions supporting the two candidates. Barack Obama is supported by the young. Mitt Romney is supported (nominally) by the old. So people who are more likely to cruise around on YouTube looking for videos of a monkey washing a cat are younger and less likely to support Mitt Romney. They don't want to see Mitt Romney's convention speech but they might want to see where Mitt Romney said bad things about the 47%.

But there's another part to this story. Old people use YouTube less but they're not dead and they're not luddites. They also aren't watching Mitt Romney's convention speech because ... it was not very interesting or even watchable. It was boring.

As I mentioned at the time, it was a big missed opportunity.

Now, as we approach the first presidential debate, Mitt Romney is under increasing pressure to do something dramatic to change the race. He needs to rattle a guy whose whole public persona is all about being cool. Indeed, people complain that Obama doesn't get angry enough, he's too calm and aloof. The odds that he'll fly off the handle and make a mistake is really quite small.

Mitt's in a tricky box.

Devastating Ad

You've probably seen it by now but this is a devastating ad being run by the President against Mitt Romney:



There's many things going on in this ad that make it very tough. Putting sympathetic faces on the 47% hurts. The music is haunting. Romney's own voice is as unfeeling and inhuman as ever.

But Jonathan Chait nails what is soooo devastating about the ad:

It’s the sound of silverware clinking on china in the background as Romney speaks. That detail contrasts the atmosphere Romney inhabits with the one in which most Americans live. You can tell, even though you’re not seeing this, that the remarks are being made to people enjoying a formal dinner.