A little movement towards Obama in the trackers this morning. Gallup moves from Obama +5 to Obama +7. Rasmussen holds steady at Obama +7. Hotline moves from Obama +5 to Obama +6. R2000 moves from Obama +11 to Obama.
The big news comes from a little state. Two polls out this morning show Obama with a good lead in New Hampshire. Obama is up 10 according to Rasmussen and Obama is up 12 according to St. Anselm. There had not been a poll in New Hampshire in a couple of weeks and this will move NH into Obama’s column on a lot of maps that didn’t already have it that way.
A SurveyUSA poll in Minnesota has McCain up by 1. I just don’t believe it. CNN/Time had Obama up by 11 a few days ago and the national movement should have Obama up by a bit there right now. If you look at the internals of the SurveyUSA poll, you see some real wacky things going on. The poll has McCain up by 1 among women, it has Obama winning by 10 among voters 65 and over but only winning by 4 among voters 18-34. Finally, there is just no way Obama is up by 5 or 6 points nationally but behind by 1 in Minnesota. SurveyUSA is a solid pollster but this poll is just not right … and I suspect we’ll see another poll or two there in the coming days showing I’m right.
As for the debate, almost none of the interviews for these polls include reaction to the debate. We’ll see some of that in the coming days. But I think this flow-chart re-printed by Andrew Sullivan pretty well captures what we saw from Sarah Palin yesterday:
Posts
No comments:
Post a Comment