Thursday, October 2, 2008

Morning Polls

First, the bad news. As my friend Lonce pointed out to me this morning … Obama REALLY has his work cut out for him in Oklahoma where a poll yesterday showed him down by 30.

Everywhere else, he’s in great shape.

The trackers continue to look good. Rasmussen moves from Obama +6 to Obama +7. Gallup moves from Obama +4 to Obama +5. Hotline remained steady at Obama +5. R2000 moves from Obama +10 to Obama +11. Interestingly, I wrote about Nate Silver’s criticism of the GW/Battleground tracking poll and their odd weighting formula that had them showing McCain with a 2 point lead a few days ago. I don’t know why (perhaps in response to Silver’s critique) but they changed their weighting and … poof, their tracker this morning shows Obama +5. There is no disagreement. Obama has a nice lead now nationally. Many other national polls show similar kinds of numbers. The CBS News poll from last night has even more bad news for McCain. The poll has Obama up by 9 nationally and out of those who say they will vote for Obama, CBS asked if voters had made up their minds. 86% of Obama voters said they will not be changing their minds. That is a high number (higher than McCain’s voters for one) and suggests that Obama is not just leading but his support is more firm than McCain’s.

Obama’s lead is now being reflected in MANY state polls There is also a tracker in just the state of Pennsylvania. That tracker has shown an Obama lead all along but over the past week, that lead has tracked up to 9 points as of this morning. I mentioned yesterday a poll showing McCain’s lead in Georgia (a state he’s basically pulled out of) down to 8. This morning Insider Advantage has McCain’s lead in Georgia down to just 6. In North Carolina, Rasmussen now has Obama up by 3. Yow. In Michigan, a PPP poll has Obama up by 10. YOW! In New Mexico, SurveyUSA has Obama up by 8. Believe it or not, I think that might be underestimating his lead there.

Obama is running an ad this morning that was released a month ago but still works. Remarkable how consistent the message is from this guy:

As I said yesterday, we can expect John McCain to come out swinging with some really, really nasty stuff sooner rather than later. So strap yourself in and keep working. Check that. Work harder!

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