Morning Polls

$150 million??? Are you serious??? I just don't think people are getting how big a deal that is. Obama is going to be out-spending McCain in a BIG, big way in the last 16 days. McCain will try to get some mileage out of the fact that this is unfair and will say Obama is "breaking" the public financing system. Newsflash to McCain: That system has been broken for a long time and nobody cares.

The good news for John McCain this morning comes from polls of West Virginia. That's how bad it is for him now.

Today is the first day in which all the interviews in the tracking polls come from after the last debate and Obama is gaining back some of the ground he lost in the last few days. Gallup (Likely Voter II model) moves from Obama +4 to Obama +7. Rasmussen moves from Obama +5 to Obama +6. Hotline stays at Obama +7. R2000 holds steady at Obama +7.

At the state level, things look steady as well:

Ohio (Mason Dixon) - McCain +1
Minnesota (Star Tribune) - Obama +11
Minnesota (R2000) - Obama +19
Wisconsin (Mason Dixon) - Obama +12
Montana (R2000) - McCain +4
Pennsylvania (Muhlenberg) - Obama +12
West Virginia (Mason Dixon) - McCain +6
West Virginia (PPP) - McCain +8
Kentucky (R2000) - McCain +15

McCain does seem to have a lead in West Virginia. But the Obama campaign just announced they will be spending (queue the sound of a truck backing up) $5 million on West Virginia in the last two weeks. Oof. Obama continues to hold healthy leads in Minnesota and Wisconsin and Pennsylvania. I have no idea why McCain is still spending money in these states but I ain't complaining. Ohio is Ohio. It is close. It is going to be close all the way to the wire. Montana is now emerging as another battleground. It is a state Obama pulled out of some time ago but, with their warchest, I suspect the Obama campaign will be spending some money there now as well. Obama simply doesn't have to make hard choices at this point.

16 days to go. Today has been a very good polling day.