Some conflicting signals from the trackers this morning. Gallup and Rasmussen are the trackers I tend to trust the most though Gallup (because of how their samples are constructed differently) tends to be a little more volatile (or sensitive if you want to say it nicely). Gallup shows Obama gaining ground and he's now up by 11 (not a typo) nationally and he's at 52%. He was up by 9 in Gallup's tracker yesterday. Gallup notes in their write-up that Obama has had a double-digit lead in each of the last three nights. On the other hand, Rasmussen shows a slight move towards McCain moving from Obama +8 to Obama +6 though Obama remains at 51%. The other trackers seem to show slight narrowing though it is not really significant. R2000 moves from Obama +12 to Obama +10. Hotline moves from Obama +2 to Obama +1. Battleground moves from Obama +7 to Obama +4. Meanwhile Ipsos has a new national poll out showing Obama ahead by 7. That's probably about where we are.
The state polls continue to show strength for Obama. Rasmussen has Obama ahead by 10 in Wisconsin. The Morning Call tracker has Obama ahead by 12 in Pennsylvania. And Fairleigh Dickinson has Obama ahead by 13 in New Jersey.
None of these polling data include significant numbers of interviews from after the debate. We'll begin to see some of that data tomorrow morning.
Wednesday, October 8, 2008
The Other Hand Taketh Away
Obama is up with a new (very effective) ad on health care drawn from last night's debate. Very good stuff:
Another One (yeah, THAT one) Is In The Books
Most of the pundits are reading tonight's debate the way the rest of us do for once. In short, it was a good night for Barack Obama. He was solid, presidential, very camera-aware, and he connected well. McCain did not have any major mistakes ... aside from calling Obama "that one" (image to the left is from Andrew Sullivan's blog). But he was a little grumpy, a little awkward at times walking around too much, and he was particularly weak on the economy. As others are saying tonight, a tie goes to the candidate who was ahead coming in. But this probably was not a tie. Obama won it on points at a minimum. We won't see polling reflecting voters' reactions to this debate until Thursday morning at the earliest but I don't think those numbers will have good news for John McCain anyway.
27 days to go!
Tuesday, October 7, 2008
Late Polls Update
A bunch more state polls this afternoon, a lot more bad news for John McCain.
In Pennsylvania, a Rasmussen poll confirms what SurveyUSA found earlier today and what the Morning Call tracker has been showing - a double-digit lead for Obama. Rasmussen has him up by 13. Insider Advantage has Obama up by 6 in Colorado and up by 2 in Nevada. Both those numbers sound roughly correct to me though the Reno Gazette-Journal shows Obama up by 7 in Nevada. A PPP poll in Ohio shows what an ABC/WP poll showed yesterday - Obama by 6. SurveyUSA has McCain up by 3 in North Carolina. A McCain lead of just 3 constitutes good news for him but other polls have Obama edging into the lead there. SurveyUSA also has Obama ahead by 10 in Wisconsin. With same-day registration in the state, consider Wiscsonsin gone. Finally, in the "why are we polling this state?" category, McCain leads by 15 in Alaska (Rasumussen) and Obama leads by 16 in California (SurveyUSA). Seems like a fair trade of Pacific states, right?
The most interesting news to me this afternoon is a Minnesota Public Radio poll in Minnesota that shows Obama up by 14. If you read my posts over the weekend, you know I was skeptical of that SurveyUSA poll showing McCain ahead by 1 there. Since then, we've now had two polls showing Obama with an 18 point lead and a 14 point lead there. This poll had a small sample size so, on its own, it is not totally convincing but, combined with what we are seeing in Iowa and Wisconsin (states somewhat similar to Minnesota demographically) and, taken together with other polling, it seems to me Obama has a double-digit lead in Minnesota right now as well.
McCain now needs the mother of all Hail Marys! It should make for an entertaining debate.
In Pennsylvania, a Rasmussen poll confirms what SurveyUSA found earlier today and what the Morning Call tracker has been showing - a double-digit lead for Obama. Rasmussen has him up by 13. Insider Advantage has Obama up by 6 in Colorado and up by 2 in Nevada. Both those numbers sound roughly correct to me though the Reno Gazette-Journal shows Obama up by 7 in Nevada. A PPP poll in Ohio shows what an ABC/WP poll showed yesterday - Obama by 6. SurveyUSA has McCain up by 3 in North Carolina. A McCain lead of just 3 constitutes good news for him but other polls have Obama edging into the lead there. SurveyUSA also has Obama ahead by 10 in Wisconsin. With same-day registration in the state, consider Wiscsonsin gone. Finally, in the "why are we polling this state?" category, McCain leads by 15 in Alaska (Rasumussen) and Obama leads by 16 in California (SurveyUSA). Seems like a fair trade of Pacific states, right?
The most interesting news to me this afternoon is a Minnesota Public Radio poll in Minnesota that shows Obama up by 14. If you read my posts over the weekend, you know I was skeptical of that SurveyUSA poll showing McCain ahead by 1 there. Since then, we've now had two polls showing Obama with an 18 point lead and a 14 point lead there. This poll had a small sample size so, on its own, it is not totally convincing but, combined with what we are seeing in Iowa and Wisconsin (states somewhat similar to Minnesota demographically) and, taken together with other polling, it seems to me Obama has a double-digit lead in Minnesota right now as well.
McCain now needs the mother of all Hail Marys! It should make for an entertaining debate.
Morning Polls
The morning trackers show Obama holding or building on his lead with one (inexplicable) exception. Gallup moves from Obama +8 to Obama +9. Rasmussen holds steady at Obama +8. R2000 moves from Obama +12 to Obama +11. Battleground holds steady at Obama +7. But Hotline moves from Obama +6 to Obama +2. That's a pretty significant move for a day on which nothing significant seemed to happen. Looking behind their numbers, it does seem they've got a few too many Republicans in their sample.
By the way, Real Clear Politics has now added a Zogby tracker to their tally but they are still leaving out the R2000 tracker. Somewhere in America, Nate Silver is about to go ballistic on them for that maneuver.
More state polls are out this morning and the news is mostly good for Obama. Starting with the more red states, in Indiana, R2000 has the race tied but CNN/Time has McCain ahead by 5. In North Carolina, CNN/Time has the race tied. In Florida, Mason Dixon has Obama up by 2. In Ohio, CNN/Time has Obama up by 3. CNN/Time also has Obama up by 8 in New Hampshire and has Obama up by 5 in Wisconsin. Finally, SurveyUSA has Obama up by 15 (not a typo) in Pennsylvania and the Morning Call tracker has Obama up by 10 in Pennsylvania.
Pennsylvania is gone folks. Aside from the polls, it is notable we haven't seen Obama, McCain, Biden, or Palin visit Pennsylvania recently. The map is really shrinking now for McCain. Bush got 286 Electoral Votes in 2004. McCain is not leading in any state Kerry won. But McCain is clearly losing in the following Bush states: New Mexico, Iowa, Virginia, and Colorado. He also appears to be losing in these Bush states: Florida, Ohio, North Carolina, and Nevada. And then there are these tossup states: Indiana and Missouri.
What I'm saying is that McCain cannot be thinking in terms of states right now. He has to think in terms of shifting the whole map in some important way. Tactical decisions about where to deploy staff or where to run commercials are irrelevant unless he does something to change the "fundamentals" (yeah, I used that word) of the game. And that's why we're seeing some really nasty moves (Ayers, Wright, etc.) from McCain.
Want to know McCain's real problem? Here's an interesting game. Take five seconds to try to answer the following question: What does John McCain propose to do about the economy? I really can't answer that question. I know a couple of minor details. He wants to drill for more oil and he wants to cut corporate taxes. But I follow this stuff VERY closely and the fact that I can't answer that question for McCain is a big, big problem for him. Average voters have no idea what McCain wants to do about the economy and the economy is all that matters to them right now.
What do average voters know about Obama's plan on the economy? Middle class tax cut, immediate stimulus package, assistance for struggling homeowners, create green energy jobs, eliminate tax cuts for companies moving jobs overseas, reduce catastrophic health care costs for small business helping them to afford premiums, etc.
OK, maybe average voters don't know all that. But they know some of it. I really can't think of anything John McCain is proposing that helps ... (wait for it, wait for it) ... "Joe Six-Pack" and "Hockey Moms." On the upside for McCain, as Stephen Colbert pointed out last night, with all her appeals to "Joe Six-Pack" and "Hockey Moms," Sarah Palin has really nailed down the votes of alcoholic parents driving your kids to afterschool sporting events.
By the way, Real Clear Politics has now added a Zogby tracker to their tally but they are still leaving out the R2000 tracker. Somewhere in America, Nate Silver is about to go ballistic on them for that maneuver.
More state polls are out this morning and the news is mostly good for Obama. Starting with the more red states, in Indiana, R2000 has the race tied but CNN/Time has McCain ahead by 5. In North Carolina, CNN/Time has the race tied. In Florida, Mason Dixon has Obama up by 2. In Ohio, CNN/Time has Obama up by 3. CNN/Time also has Obama up by 8 in New Hampshire and has Obama up by 5 in Wisconsin. Finally, SurveyUSA has Obama up by 15 (not a typo) in Pennsylvania and the Morning Call tracker has Obama up by 10 in Pennsylvania.
Pennsylvania is gone folks. Aside from the polls, it is notable we haven't seen Obama, McCain, Biden, or Palin visit Pennsylvania recently. The map is really shrinking now for McCain. Bush got 286 Electoral Votes in 2004. McCain is not leading in any state Kerry won. But McCain is clearly losing in the following Bush states: New Mexico, Iowa, Virginia, and Colorado. He also appears to be losing in these Bush states: Florida, Ohio, North Carolina, and Nevada. And then there are these tossup states: Indiana and Missouri.
What I'm saying is that McCain cannot be thinking in terms of states right now. He has to think in terms of shifting the whole map in some important way. Tactical decisions about where to deploy staff or where to run commercials are irrelevant unless he does something to change the "fundamentals" (yeah, I used that word) of the game. And that's why we're seeing some really nasty moves (Ayers, Wright, etc.) from McCain.
Want to know McCain's real problem? Here's an interesting game. Take five seconds to try to answer the following question: What does John McCain propose to do about the economy? I really can't answer that question. I know a couple of minor details. He wants to drill for more oil and he wants to cut corporate taxes. But I follow this stuff VERY closely and the fact that I can't answer that question for McCain is a big, big problem for him. Average voters have no idea what McCain wants to do about the economy and the economy is all that matters to them right now.
What do average voters know about Obama's plan on the economy? Middle class tax cut, immediate stimulus package, assistance for struggling homeowners, create green energy jobs, eliminate tax cuts for companies moving jobs overseas, reduce catastrophic health care costs for small business helping them to afford premiums, etc.
OK, maybe average voters don't know all that. But they know some of it. I really can't think of anything John McCain is proposing that helps ... (wait for it, wait for it) ... "Joe Six-Pack" and "Hockey Moms." On the upside for McCain, as Stephen Colbert pointed out last night, with all her appeals to "Joe Six-Pack" and "Hockey Moms," Sarah Palin has really nailed down the votes of alcoholic parents driving your kids to afterschool sporting events.
Monday, October 6, 2008
Late Poll Update
Some of these numbers are not so bad for McCain ... and some of them are just horrible for McCain:
Let's start with the "not so bad for McCain" category:
A Rasmussen poll has McCain ahead by 1 in Ohio and another Rasmussen poll has Obama up by "only" 2 in Virginia. In addition, a new CBS poll has Obama "only" up by 3 nationally. It should be noted that the "not so bad" category has Obama winning nationally but McCain is in striking distance.
Now, let's look at the "horrible for McCain" category:
Rasmussen has Obama up by 7 in Florida, has Obama up by 6 in Colorado, and has Obama up by 3 in Missouri. PPP has Obama up by 6 in North Carolina, a result consistent with big leads in Virginia reported by SUSA and Suffolk earlier in the day. ABC/WP has Obama up by 6 in Ohio. NBC/WSJ has Obama up by 6 nationally and CNN has Obama up by 8 nationally at 53%.
Take all of that together and digest for a moment. What you've got is a huge amount of polling in one day and the only polls that show McCain ahead in ANY battleground are a Rasmussen poll in Ohio that shows him leading by 1 (disputed by ABC/WP) and an R2000 poll in Georgia that has McCain up by just 7 (which is not actually good news for him).
McCain does not appear to have stopped the bleeding yet. He needs something dramatic in tomorrow night's debate.
Let's start with the "not so bad for McCain" category:
A Rasmussen poll has McCain ahead by 1 in Ohio and another Rasmussen poll has Obama up by "only" 2 in Virginia. In addition, a new CBS poll has Obama "only" up by 3 nationally. It should be noted that the "not so bad" category has Obama winning nationally but McCain is in striking distance.
Now, let's look at the "horrible for McCain" category:
Rasmussen has Obama up by 7 in Florida, has Obama up by 6 in Colorado, and has Obama up by 3 in Missouri. PPP has Obama up by 6 in North Carolina, a result consistent with big leads in Virginia reported by SUSA and Suffolk earlier in the day. ABC/WP has Obama up by 6 in Ohio. NBC/WSJ has Obama up by 6 nationally and CNN has Obama up by 8 nationally at 53%.
Take all of that together and digest for a moment. What you've got is a huge amount of polling in one day and the only polls that show McCain ahead in ANY battleground are a Rasmussen poll in Ohio that shows him leading by 1 (disputed by ABC/WP) and an R2000 poll in Georgia that has McCain up by just 7 (which is not actually good news for him).
McCain does not appear to have stopped the bleeding yet. He needs something dramatic in tomorrow night's debate.
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