Friday, September 7, 2012

The Anti-Bounce?

Lots of Democrats are hoping for a big bounce in the wake of the Democratic Convention which was capped off by a terrific speech by the President.

My initial reaction was that the speech and the performance were very good (particularly the end) but that Obama would get very little or no bounce because of many of the same reasons that Romney did not get much of a bounce.

Today, the jobs report was very disappointing. The unemployment rate ticked down because many people stopped looking for work but the economy added under 100,000 jobs.

The bounce was likely to be non-existent and now this jobs report is bad so could Obama actually lose ground in the polls? Not likely. First, some will focus on the fact that the unemployment rate ticked down, even though it is not for good reasons. Second, the news is disappointing but not disastrous. The "locked in" electorate is not likely to be moved in EITHER direction very easily.

Finally, if anyone is looking for the tiniest ray of hope in the jobs report (or if you're just inclined to be blissfully delusional), it is this: The public sector continued to shed jobs in August and public sector job losses were revised upwards for June and July. You're probably thinking "how is that good news?" The answer is that those public sector job losses are likely to stop in September and October. If that could be combined with some slightly better private sector job growth, the jobs picture could improve.

But that's a faint hope for another day. Today, I think the Obama campaign is hoping to just tread water.

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