Sunday, October 5, 2008

Morning Polls

This morning's tracking polls include two nights of post-VP debate interviews ... and things look stable. Gallup moves from Obama +8 to Obama +7 but indicates the race may narrow a bit in tomorrow's update. Rasmussen moves from Obama +6 to Obama +7. Hotline stays even at Obama +7. R2000 holds steady at Obama +12.

The good news is that preferences continue to solidify. In the Rasmussen tracker, 45% of voters say they are "certain" they will vote for Obama. Just 38% say they are "certain" they will vote for McCain. In other words, more people say they are "certain" to vote for Obama than ALL of those who are voting for McCain, leaning McCain, etc. This is VERY, VERY bad news for McCain.

There are also some state polls out this morning. The Morning Call Pennsylvania tracker moves from Obama +12 to Obama +10 but that's probably just noise. The Denver Post has Colorado tied. That is not a good result right now for Obama but we'll see if others have it the same way. Palin was just in Colorado yesterday. On the upside, a Columbus Dispatch poll has Obama up by 7 in Ohio. The Minneapolis Star-Tribune released their poll for the presidential race and they have Obama up by 18 in Minnesota. If you've been reading my posts for the last few days, you know I've been saying both this poll and the SUSA poll in MN seem screwy. And I pretty much stand by that. But I do think Obama is winning in Minnesota. I said yesterday that he probably leads by 5-8 points and I stand by that. Still waiting for others to poll the state.

Overall, the numbers do not seem to be moving very much right now ... and that's a good thing.

1 comment:

Anonymous said...

"He's not like us." "Us against them." doesn't work. The Republicans are desparate. This is what they do when all else fails. There is no them. It's all us. Let's get on with it. Medical, financial, energy.