Wednesday, October 24, 2012

Post-Debate Interviews Trickling In ... Nothing

We do not yet see any effect in post-debate interviews that are trickling into polls.

PPP's latest tracker includes one day (out of three) that are post-debate interviews. Obama and Romney were tied on that one day but the tracker ticked in Obama's favor as a recent strong day (Saturday) for Romney dropped out of the tracker.

Rasmussen's tracker also showed no change from yesterday as a full day of post-debate interviews rolled into their poll. Obama is still down by 4 there.

Rasmussen also released a new Ohio poll which is either good or bad news depending on what you believe about Rasmussen. They have Ohio tied at 48. If you take that poll at face value, it is not good news for Obama. If you believe Rasmussen has a Republican lean (Simon Jackman has some data on this out today), then Obama is right where we figured he is ... ahead by 2 or 3 points in Ohio.

Put all that together and you've got ... nothing. For those joining us late ...


Thomas Hartman said...

Jackman's model shows Fox News polling very close to zero. How do you feel about that? Are there any concerns you have about their sampling/weighting?

Larry Becker said...

Fox doesn't do a ton of polling (notice a pretty good spread on the margin of error for the house effect) so I don't think about their polls all that much but I can buy that they don't have too heavy of a lean. The most surprising one in there to me was PPP. They've had much less of a Democratic lean than in the past.