Sunday, October 7, 2012

Monitoring the Debate Bounce II

I mentioned yesterday that one reason Democrats shouldn't get too panicked about the post-debate polling is that Romney's gains seem to be just that ... gains for Romney rather than a drop in support for Obama.

This morning, Gallup released their tracker which now includes close to 50% of their sample as post-debate interviews and the topline was unchanged from yesterday (Obama leads 49-46). Similarly, Rasmussen released their tracker which now includes 100% post-debate interviews and their numbers were unchanged from yesterday as well (Romney leads 49-47).

If we use these new numbers to extrapolate out the size of the bounce the same way I did yesterday, we find that Romney got a 4-point bounce in Rasmussen's tracker and is headed for a modest 2-point bounce from Gallup. Average the two and you get a 3-point bounce overall.

But, as I mentioned above, the gains seem to be gains for Romney rather than a drop in support for Obama. Obama's job approval rating in Rasmussen's tracker was 49% before the debate and it is 50% today. The President's job approval has ticked down in Gallup's tracker since the debate but it is still 48%.

Overall, today's numbers (so far) seem to suggest a leveling-off of Romney's post-debate surge. Whether it is just because it has reached its half-life or because the jobs report news is starting to mute it, I think it is starting to look more like it is in line with the 1-2 point bounce I initially predicted.

UPDATE: The Reuters/Ipsos tracker is also unchanged from yesterday (Obama leads 47-45) and that tracker is now almost entirely made up of interviews from after the debate. So, the post-debate Romney bounce seems to be cresting at about 3%.


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