Sunday, October 14, 2012

Debate Bounce Receding?

I asked the other day, where are the good pollsters? There have not been any national polls from pollsters I think are good that included a purely post-10/4 sample.

Tonight, the ABC/Washington Post poll came out and it has Obama ahead of Romney 49-46 among likely voters and ahead 50-43 among registered voters. There is still a larger-than-usual gap between registered voters and likely voters so I think the President has room to grow here. But, the bottom line is Obama is ahead by 3 among likely voters and was ahead by 2 among likely voters before the debate in this same poll. As far as this poll is concerned, the first debate bounce is effectively gone.

Meanwhile, Ipsos (not a pollster I consider so great) reports that the President leads among early voters nationwide by a wide margin (59/31). There is more and more evidence pouring in to substantiate the early voting edge Obama seems to have in Ohio. Ipsos also has the President ahead (by just one point) for the first time since just after the first debate.

This is the best polling day Obama's had since the first debate.

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