Monday, October 6, 2008

Late Poll Update

Some of these numbers are not so bad for McCain ... and some of them are just horrible for McCain:

Let's start with the "not so bad for McCain" category:

A Rasmussen poll has McCain ahead by 1 in Ohio and another Rasmussen poll has Obama up by "only" 2 in Virginia. In addition, a new CBS poll has Obama "only" up by 3 nationally. It should be noted that the "not so bad" category has Obama winning nationally but McCain is in striking distance.

Now, let's look at the "horrible for McCain" category:

Rasmussen has Obama up by 7 in Florida, has Obama up by 6 in Colorado, and has Obama up by 3 in Missouri. PPP has Obama up by 6 in North Carolina, a result consistent with big leads in Virginia reported by SUSA and Suffolk earlier in the day. ABC/WP has Obama up by 6 in Ohio. NBC/WSJ has Obama up by 6 nationally and CNN has Obama up by 8 nationally at 53%.

Take all of that together and digest for a moment. What you've got is a huge amount of polling in one day and the only polls that show McCain ahead in ANY battleground are a Rasmussen poll in Ohio that shows him leading by 1 (disputed by ABC/WP) and an R2000 poll in Georgia that has McCain up by just 7 (which is not actually good news for him).

McCain does not appear to have stopped the bleeding yet. He needs something dramatic in tomorrow night's debate.

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