Gallup: Is it a Dessert Topping or a Floor Wax?

Is today's Gallup release good news for Obama or just utterly crazy nonsense ... or could it be both???



It's a dessert topping AND a floor wax!!!

All of Gallup's metrics moved in Obama's direction today. He narrowed the gap from 5 to 3 among likely voters. He moved from a 1-point deficit to a 1-point lead among registered voters. And Obama's net job approval went from +6 to a staggering +11. What a day!

There's certainly no bad news in there. But how good is the news? We first have to remember that Gallup's trial heat tracking poll is a 7-day rolling sample while their job approval poll is a 3-day rolling sample. This means that every day, a previous day is dropping out of the sample but in the trial heat numbers it is from 8 days ago while in the job approval numbers, it is from 4 days ago. I mention this because the uptick can easily be explained by a really good day for Romney rolling out of the sample OR by a really good day for Obama on Tuesday (the 23rd). How do we know which it is? We don't know for sure but the fact that both sets of numbers got better suggests that Obama had a good day in Gallup's sample yesterday rather than just 2 different bad days for Obama dropping out of the sample. But the truth is we really don't know in the absence of additional information.

But, hey, this release from Gallup could also be a floor wax! Gallup is so off-the-rails insane with their numbers, it is impossible to say what is going on. For example, let's start with Gallup's numbers on the surface. They've got Romney ahead by 3 among likely voters but Obama has a net job approval rating of +11. Sorry, but no. If Obama's job approval is 53% on Election Day, he wins ... and it isn't close. Part of the problem here is that Gallup has a 7-day rolling sample for their trial heat in the first place. This is fairly absurd. Then, there's the problems with Gallup's likely voter model which has a very, very bad recent history. But forget the likely voter screen. Until today, Gallup had the President trailing among registered voters by as much as 3 points. Virtually every pollster has Obama ahead among registered voters.

So, is Gallup a dessert topping or a floor wax? Is it good news or just insane rantings? It's both!!!

Advising Romney

Some have asked me if I were advising Romney, what would I tell him to do.

There are lots of stories these days about Republicans starting to panic that Romney is running a bad campaign. Yesterday, the Hill had an article with lots of Republican senators (anonymously) explaining what Romney should be doing differently. This advice is drawing, of course, on the long history of Republican senators who've won presidential campaigns. The exact number of Republican senators to move right to the White House is ... zero. So they sure know a lot about running losing campaigns but winning? Not so much.

Anyway, the advice they were giving was that Romney needs to spell out his policy plans in more detail. It is surely true that voters don't know what Romney wants to do and it is true he's been criticized along these lines. And Romney seems to be responding by taking the advice of "Those Who Know Nothing of What They Speak" and is now outlining his "5-point plan" which is more stump-speech friendly than his original 59-point plan.

If I were advising Romney, I'd tell him his best bet is to stop doing stuff. Romney's best bet for winning is for people to sour on the President, perhaps because the economy goes south, or perhaps for other reasons. And then, voters will be looking for a credible alternative. Romney is a former governor, businessman, graying-at-the-temples, and has a beautiful family. That's all people need to know. The more they know about Romney beyond that, the worse he does. The more he opens his mouth, the REALLY worse he does. So ... just stop! Let the campaign be about Obama.

The good news for Democrats is that Romney won't stop. SNL made this point in the season premiere last night.



Obama's best weapon is Romney talking. So stop talking. He gives a convention speech and flubs it by not mentioning the troops. He speaks out on Libya/Egypt? Disaster. He's asked about repealing Obamacare? Mess. He decides to talk about how he defines the middle class? Oy. So bad, so bad. All the time.

Mitt's best shot is to stop talking ... and then hope the economy sinks. I know it isn't a hopeful kind of plan. But it is his best shot.

UPDATE: For instance, this is the kind of thing Romney says when he talks. Not good: