Tuesday, June 5, 2012

Obama Leads in Florida

Maybe. PPP says he's got a small lead at least. One poll that is this close and is within the margin of error doesn't frankly tell us too much. But it is enough to generate a few thoughts on the subject of Florida ...

1) I'm going to say something sort of provocative and tell you that Florida sort of doesn't matter. Of course, if Obama wins Florida, Romney can't win. That's true. But it is also true that if Obama wins Florida, he's probably already won Ohio. And if Obama wins Ohio ... Romney can't win. So, while a win in Florida would guarantee an Obama victory, it would sort of be like hitting a grand slam in the top of the 9th when you're already ahead by 5. It's nice but you were very likely to win already anyway.

2) PPP also asked respondents how they would vote if either of Jeb Bush or Marco Rubio was added to the Romney ticket. Obama's lead was still 3 with Rubio on the ticket and it was 5 with Bush on the ticket. Now, I'm skeptical that a question like this really does a good job of simulating the impact of adding Bush or Rubio to the ticket. That said, I do think adding Bush would be utterly insane. That name is radioactive and Romney just couldn't do more to make Obama's case that electing Romney is like going back to the Bush policies that produced the current mess. Has anyone noticed the Obama campaign has changed their one-word slogan from "Change" in 2008 to "Forward" in 2012? If Obama's watchword is Forward and you add Bush to the Republican ticket, I think the Obama campaign would just gleefully issue a press release saying, "We have nothing to add your honor. The prosecution rests." As for Rubio, I do not think he would change the dynamic of the race much at all. I don't say that because of anything about him. I just don't think any running mate helps dramatically. They can only hurt (see Palin, Sarah and the preceding discussion of Bush, Jeb).

3) I tend to think quite highly of PPP as a polling organization. They rated quite well in Nate Silver's pollster ratings for one. We'll get an interesting test this evening. PPP had a poll out yesterday showing Walker up 50-47 in Wisconsin's recall. We Ask America had a poll out yesterday as well that had Walker up 52-44. Let's see what happens.

No comments: