Sunday, May 20, 2012

More Bad Polling

The Vanderbilt Poll has Romney ahead of Obama by just 1 in Tennessee among likely voters. Ummmm ... no, sorry:
President Barack Obama has pulled into a virtual tie with presumptive Republican nominee Mitt Romney in traditionally conservative Tennessee
Buried later in the article, there's this analysis from John Geer:
“It’s not that close a race,” Geer said, predicting Romney would prevail with little trouble.
I can't tell you for sure exactly where they went wrong here but 55% of likely voters are female (it was 53% in the 2008 exit poll) and Obama was ahead by 6.5 points among women (he lost by 7 among women in 2008). So that's a pretty good starting point for what is wrong. Another problem is that Romney is ahead by 7 among registered voters but ahead by just 1 when the likely voter screen is applied? The Democratic GOTV operation is good ... but not supernatural.

Tennessee is solid Romney territory.

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