Morning Polls

The Gallup "expanded" model moves from Obama +10 to Obama +9. Rasmussen holds steady at Obama +5 and Obama has held steady at 51% in their poll for four straight days now. Hotline moves from Obama +7 to Obama +5 though Obama remains at 50% in that tracker. Hotline also reports that 27% of voters have already voted (similar to Gallup's result from yesterday). R2000 holds steady at Obama +4 and Obama is at 51% in that tracker. Finally, CNN/Opinion Research has Obama up by 7 nationally and at 53%

A number of state polls out this morning:

Colorado (Mason Dixon) - Obama +5
Iowa (Selzer) - Obama +17
Kentucky (Mason Dixon) - Obama +9
Kentucky (SurveyUSA) - McCain +16
Maine (Rasmussen) - Obama +13
Michigan (Detroit Free Press) - Obama +16
Minnesota (Star Tribune) - Obama +11
Missouri (Mason Dixon) - McCain +1
Nevada (Mason Dixon) - Obama +4
New Mexico (SurveyUSA) - Obama +7
North Carolina (Mason Dixon) - McCain +3
Ohio (Columbus Dispatch) - Obama +6
Ohio (Mason Dixon) - McCain +2
Pennsylvania (Muhlenberg) - Obama +7
Pennsylvania (SurveyUSA) - Obama +7
Utah (Deseret News) - McCain +25
Virginia (Mason Dixon) - Obama +3
Virginia (SurveyUSA) - Obama +4

A good number of these polls are from Mason Dixon and virtually all the Mason Dixon polls have McCain doing better than other pollsters in the same states. Nate Silver estimates Mason Dixon's house effect as 2 or 3 points towards McCain. And he discusses the meaning of this morning's polls here. Also, Nate has McCain's probability of winning moving up from 3.8% to 6.3%. Do read his post if you are freaking out. Then, use the energy to do some phone banking or precinct walking.

I suspect we're going to see a lot more state-level polls out later today. All in all, these numbers would seem to indicate some narrowing but still a solid Obama lead.

Finally, if you're looking for some nerdy entertainment, take a look at how some of the voices I trust out there have taken Zogby to task in the last 24 hours. Nate Silver did so late Friday night and Mark Blumenthal did so this morning. Zogby deserves it. He made a big deal out of his one-night sample on Friday night and then tried to act like he hadn't last night ... by including a snarky dig aimed at Nate Silver in his update. His tracker does not currently have a result that is much different than others but the wild swings he hypes on the basis of small samples make his tracker suspect. His snarky comment aimed at Nate Silver makes his character suspect. So there.

2 days to go!!! Breathe in, breathe out.